Premier League Preview: Arsenal – Chelsea

 Sunday, 29 November, Kick-off: 16:00 GMT

Emirates Stadium, Ashburton Grove, London N5

Can Arsenal defy the odds?

One of the biggest games of the season so far – now arguably the most significant of all the London derbies - takes place at the Emirates on Sunday afternoon when third-placed Arsenal welcome Premier League leaders Chelsea knowing that defeat against the Blues could seriously damage their title aspirations while enhancing their opponents’ quest to recapture the top-flight crown.

The Gunners are currently eight points behind Carlo Ancelotti’s side, having played one game fewer, so while a win for the north London club this weekend would narrow the gap to five – and potentially two if the Gunners can win that game in hand at home to Bolton Wanderers – defeat would see them 11 points adrift of a Chelsea team who can justifiably claim to be the most consistent and formidable in the country at the moment.

The stakes are certainly high – and for a number of reasons, the omens appear to favour Chelsea:

(1) The Blues have the edge in terms of recent form. Chelsea have won their last four Premier League outings, scoring 14 goals in the process without conceding once. Arsenal saw their outstanding 13-match unbeaten run in all competitions come to a disappointing end at Sunderland last weekend in a performance that provoked manager Arsene Wenger into uncharacteristic criticism of his players.

(2) While both clubs secured their qualification for the knock-out stages of the Champions League in midweek - and did so in style, by winning their respective groups - Chelsea’s assignment at Porto was more testing than Arsenal’s home win over Standard Liege, and may therefore have been more valuable in terms of preparation for Sunday’s showdown. 

(3) Moreover, the Gunners suffered yet more injury woe in midweek, with the promising Kieran Gibbs, deputising for first-choice left-back Gael Clichy, sustaining a broken metatarsal that will rule him out for three months, and experienced centre-back William Gallas having to withdraw at half-time battered and bruised. Gallas, the scorer of France’s recent ‘hand of Henry’ goal, was by Friday rated only 50:50 to face his former club.

In contrast, Ancelotti is able to welcome back key midfielder Frank Lampard after injury, and the Italian’s squad is in rude health compared with Wenger’s, which is currently also shorn of top striker Robin van Persie as well as Nicklas Bendtner, Abou Diaby, Johan Djourou, Lukasz Fabianski and Jack Wilshere.

(4) Didier Drogba is fit again, having returned from injury to face Porto; the powerful Ivorian has a history of making a decisive impact in meetings with the Gunners, his doubles against Arsenal in the 2007 League Cup final and 2009 FA Cup semi-final being particular cases in point. Drogba is credited with single-handedly derailing the hitherto promising career of Arsenal defender Philippe Senderos by unhinging the Swiss centre-half’s confidence earlier in his career. The impressive Thomas Vermaelen should offer sterner resistance, but Drogba’s partnership with former Gunner Nicolas Anelka is arguably the most imposing in the Premier League at the moment, a factor thrown into even sharper relief by Arsenal’s temporary loss of Van Persie and Bendtner.

Indeed, the Blues’ attack has been prolific lately, and although Arsenal have been even more productive in front of goal (36 goals in 12 Premier League games), they fired their first blank of the season at Sunderland in the absence of Van Persie, who had contributed eight goals and eight assists before injury struck while on international duty. It was the first time Arsenal had failed to score in 21 fixtures.

(5) In defence Chelsea also appear to have an edge. The Blues have let in just eight goals in 13 matches in the League this season, and have now gone 398 minutes without conceding, while Arsenal have shipped 15 in 12. Eight of those 15 have been conceded in the final 20 minutes of games, giving credence to the notion that the Gunners have yet to perfect the ruthlessness required to close out matches. In contrast, Ancelotti’s defence has been breached just once in the last 20 minutes of matches.

(6) Arsenal, have won only two of their last 14 meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, drawing four while the Blues have won seven. And Chelsea's 4-1 win at the Emirates last May was Arsenal's heaviest home defeat in Premier League history and their worst reverse on home turf since 5 March 1977 when they lost by the same scoreline to Ipswich Town at Highbury. Furthermore, the Blues have already beaten fellow ‘Big Four’ members Liverpool and Manchester United this season, while the Gunners lost, albeit unluckily, at United back in August, and have not won a league game against another 'Big Four' club in the last five attempts.

Yet despite this weight of evidence pointing towards a Chelsea victory on Sunday, it is worth recalling what happened exactly a year ago this weekend. The Blues were top then too, also with 33 points, while Arsenal were fifth, ten points behind them. The two met at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, 30 November 2008, Wenger admitting that going into head-to-head confrontations with fellow 'Big Four' members was critical when you were as far off the pace as Arsenal found themselves. For his part, then-Blues’ boss Luiz Felipe Scolari acknowledged that Wenger's team played good football, and felt it would be a difficult game for Chelsea to win as he relished  pitting his wits against his old friend, who coached with him in Japan in the mid-1990s.

Chelsea's Premier League form was fairly impressive: they were unbeaten in their last five league games, in which they did not concede a single goal while scoring 13. So Arsenal were facing a near-watertight defence and a potent attack, on Chelsea's own patch. The Gunners had already suffered five League defeats, including at home to Aston Villa (0-2) and away to Manchester City (0-3) in their previous two outings. So with Chelsea also strong favourites to win 12 months ago, there are some striking parallels with this weekend’s meeting.

When a Johan Djourou own goal gave the hosts the lead, it looked bleak for Arsenal. Yet Van Persie struck twice and the Gunners left the Bridge with an impressive 2-1 victory. It heralded the start of a Chelsea run of only four wins in their next 11 matches, a sequence which cost Scolari his job - and the Blues, who had been eight points clear of Manchester United when they took on Arsenal, the title. For Wenger’s side, the win triggered a 21-match unbeaten run in the Premier League.

Arsenal can also draw comfort from the fact that Chelsea have lost more games (16), conceded more goals (50) and dropped more points (70) against the Gunners than against any other club in the Premier League.

FORM GUIDE

Arsenal

24 Nov (Champions League) v Standard Liege (H) WON 2-0

21 Nov (Premier League) v Sunderland (A) LOST 0-1

07 Nov (Premier League) v Wolverhampton W (A) WON 4-1

04 Nov (Champions League) v AZ (H) WON 4-1

31 Oct (Premier League) v Tottenham (H) WON 3-0

28 Oct (League Cup) v Liverpool (H) WON 2-1

Chelsea

25 Nov (Champions League) v FC Porto (A) WON 1-0

21 Nov (Premier League) v Wolverhampton W (H) WON 4-0

08 Nov (Premier League) v Manchester Utd (H) WON 1-0

03 Nov (Champions League) v Atletico Madrid (A) DREW 2-2

31 Oct (Premier League) v Bolton W (A) WON 4-0

28 Oct (League Cup) v Bolton W (H) WON 4-0

TEAM NEWS

Arsenal

Wenger will be without left-back Kieran Gibbs, who suffered a fractured metatarsal in the Champions League win over Standard Liege in midweek.

William Gallas could yet be fit to play after suffering blows to an ankle and his head in the same match. Gallas was running off the ankle knock when he and Andrey Arshavin clashed heads going for the same high ball in the Liege box. The Russian needed a couple of staples to staunch the bleeding from his wound, but has recovered; while Gallas, clearly groggy and with his right eye almost closed by the swelling above it, had to come off at the interval and on Friday was given only a 50:50 chance by his manager of being fit to play on Sunday.

It has now been confirmed that Dutch striker Robin van Persie ruptured ankle ligaments in a heavy challenge from Italy defender Giorgio Chiellini during Holland’s recent friendly international, and will be sidelined until March. His five-month absence is much worse than the original estimate of six weeks, and represents a grievous blow to Arsenal’s season, especially as fellow striker Nicklas Bendtner is out until mid-December after undergoing groin surgery.

Wenger may be tempted to sign a striker in January to compensate; but in the short-term it means that Eduardo, Carlos Vela and Theo Walcott are all in contention for starting roles in the striking positions.

Gael Clichy (back), Jack Wilshere (ankle), Lukasz Fabianski (thigh) and Johan Djourou (knee) remain sidelined, while midfielder Abou Diaby is out with a calf problem. However, Brazilian Denilson made an impressive return to first-team action against Standard Liege after recovering from a back injury.

Last starting XI (v Standard Liege): Almunia, Eboue, Gallas (Silvestre 46), Vermaelen, Gibbs, Fabregas, Song, Denilson (Rosicky 66), Nasri

(Walcott 60), Arshavin, Vela.

Last Premier League starting XI (v Sunderland): Almunia, Sagna, Vermaelen, Gallas, Traore, Song, Ramsey (Arshavin 60), Fabregas, Rosicky (Walcott 72), Eduardo (Vela 72), Nasri.

Subs not used: Mannone, Denilson, Silvestre, Eboue.

Possible starting XI v Chelsea: Almunia, Sagna, Vermaelen, Gallas, Traore, Fabregas, Song, Nasri, Walcott, Eduardo, Arshavin.

Chelsea

Ancelotti has defender Jose Bosingwa out of contention until January with a knee injury, while Deco (groin) and Michael Ballack (knee) are in a race against time to be fit to face Arsenal, though both could feature after making their comebacks in midweek against Porto.

Midfielder Frank Lampard is expected to start after recovering from a torn thigh muscle, while Didier Drogba was back in Portugal following the chest injury he sustained against Manchester United.

Last starting XI (v Porto): Cech, Ivanovic, Carvalho, Terry, Zhirkov, Mikel, Ballack (Essien 68), Malouda, Deco (Cole 76), Anelka, Drogba.

Last Premier League starting XI (v Wolves): Cech, Belletti, Alex, Terry, Ashley Cole, Essien, Mikel, Joe Cole, Malouda (Matic 69), Anelka (Kakuta 59), Kalou (Borini 78). Subs not used: Hilario, Ivanovic, Zhirkov, Paulo Ferreira.

Possible starting XI v Arsenal: Cech, Ivanovic, Terry, Carvalho, A.Cole, Essien, Lampard, Ballack, J.Cole, Anelka and Drogba.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal

One striking difference between the Arsenal and Chelsea squads is their relative stature: the Blues boast an array of imposing physical specimens while Arsenal’s current crop is sprinkled with a number of shorter, slighter players whose attributes are nimbleness and fleetness of foot rather than raw power. Among them are Cesc Fabregas and Andrey Arshavin, both of whom will be crucial to Arsenal’s chances of earning victory on Sunday.

The pair represent the creative fulcrum of Wenger’s side, and will need to be at their visionary and inventive best to pick the passes that will unlock Chelsea’s solid defence. Both also represent significant goal threats: Fabregas leads the way for the Gunners with nine goals in all competitions, while Arshavin has struck six so far. But while the Spaniard has been in scintillating form this season, underlining his claims to be one of the world’s best midfielders, Arshavin has not yet hit the heights, though he has illuminated many matches with flashes of brilliance. A more sustained performance against the Blues could sway the contest in Arsenal’s favour.

Also pivotal to the Gunners will be Alex Song, arguably the most improved player in their squad. His role in protecting the back four will be vital. Cool under pressure, comfortable on the ball and tidy in his distribution, he will need the sometimes suspect positional side of his game to be top drawer against Chelsea, but should benefit from the return alongside him of Denilson. Those two will be expected to give Fabregas the platform to perform on.

Chelsea

Nicolas Anelka, 30, will be facing his former club, for whom he made 90 appearances (65 in the League) and scored 28 goals (23 in the League) between March 1997 and August 1999. Although Arsenal gave him his break in English football, he said last year that he left the Gunners to join Real Madrid in 1999 just to spite the Arsenal fans, whom he felt didn't value him highly enough. He added this week that winning the Premier League title with Chelsea this season would mean more to him than had winning the League-FA Cup double with Arsenal in 1997-98.

While both statements will no doubt encourage Gooners to let the Frenchman know what they think of him, his erstwhile manager Arsene Wenger remains a big fan. He reiterated this week how disappointed he’d been when Anelka, influenced by his brothers, quit Highbury ten years ago, adding that he had planned to pair him with Thierry Henry in the Arsenal attack.

Anelka appears finally to have found contentment – and excellent form – at Stamford Bridge, and his well-taken goal at the Emirates in May set the Blues on their way to an emphatic 4-1 win over the Gunners while nudging him closer to last season’s Golden Boot. He has struck up a formidable partnership with Didier Drogba, who also relishes playing against Arsenal, having scored eight goals in his last eight games against the Gunners.

PREDICTION

This will undoubtedly be Arsenal’s sternest test of the season so far, but Wenger has the ability to mastermind a victory. He got the better of Ancelotti over two legs when Arsenal met AC Milan in the last 16 of the 2007-08 Champions League, though Chelsea now are better than Milan were then. Wenger has also stressed the importance of this fixture to his players, arguing that they can no longer think of themselves as a young team with potential, but must deliver the results in the big games. He has long maintained that his team are capable of mounting a sustained title challenge, and this is a chance to prove it: few games on their fixture list are bigger than this one, and the Gunners go into it with a 100 per cent home record this season.

However, their blip at Sunderland was a stark reminder that without the injured Robin van Persie their cutting edge is significantly blunter. And Chelsea are awash with confidence right now. Captain John Terry declared this week that Ancelotti has all but succeeded in re-establishing the aura of invincibility that characterised Jose Mourinho's reign at the Bridge. And the Blues know that if they can secure a win at the Emirates, it will go a long way towards knocking a major challenger out of the title race.

The game is therefore beautifully poised, and a compelling contest is in prospect. It could well end with honours even.

Arsenal 2-2 Chelsea

Graham Lister, Goal.com UK