Comment: Who Will Win The Ballon d’Or?

Messi the man?

Lionel Messi is the first name on most peoples' lips when the question of the Ballon d'Or is raised, and with such a fantastic 2009, it’s hard to see past the abundantly talented Argentine, who has taken Barcelona to almost unimaginable heights.

Undoubtedly one of the main catalysts for Barcelona’s triumphant finish to the 2009 season, Messi played a key role in the victories in the Primera Division run-in and also in the Champions League. Arguably Messi’s greatest high came in the final of the Europe's blue ribbon competition, scoring the second and clinching goal with his head. That moment more than any other of his brilliant individual moments characterised his season, proving to fans and critics alike that he is the most complete footballer on the planet currently.

Strong on the ball and a hard-worker, equally comfortable cutting inside as driving down the flank, Messi also has a wonderful shooting technique. However, the headed goal indicated that the area of his game highlighted as a possible weakness could hardly be seen as one at all.

It was also a cathartic moment in his career - he missed out on the final squad under Frank Rijkaard as a youngster for the 2007 showdown against Arsenal. The full involvement in the run all the way to victory some two years later was a burden lifted from Messi’s shoulders.

There is seemingly nothing that can stop Messi’s inevitable crowning as European Football of the Year. Well not quite. There is one slight blot on Messi’s copybook for the 2009 calendar year, and that regards his performances in his national shirt. Whilst it is vastly unfair to expect such a young player to shoulder the weight of a nation’s expectation, his performances for Argentina haven’t been to the same remarkably high and consistent standard he has reserved for Barcelona.

Messi had a relatively low-key game in his hometown of Rosario against Brazil in September.  Of course, Messi is by no means the only one to blame for Argentina’s somewhat tortuous progress to South Africa, but before he can graduate to the pantheon of true and perennial greats, he will have to inspire his national, as well as his club side, to success. 

A separate category needed

Whether Messi’s national form will count against him in the final voting remains to be seen, so who might be considered as a theoretical alternative?  The first port of call has to be Barcelona.

With seven candidates, including Messi, in the 30-player list who have at one point over 2009 played for Barcelona, one could be forgiven for wondering whether there should be separate category for those playing for the Blaugrana, and one for everyone else.

Interestingly, Zlatan Ibrahimovic could be a possibility. The Swede only joined Barca in the summer, so missed out on all the successes at the end of the 2008-09 season.  But Ibrahimovic had a pretty decent first half of 2009 in his own right. He helped Inter to their third consecutive Serie A title on the field, and finished top-scorer in Italy. Since then he has settled into life in Spain with astonishing ease. 

Don’t discount the Catalan duo of Andres Iniesta and Xavi either.  The pair were, of course, two of the other main reasons behind Barcelona’s sensational season, although struggled with Spain in the Confederations Cup in South Africa over the summer.

Thierry Henry is another of the Camp Nou contingent who could be considered a potential threat to Messi for overall honours.  Nevertheless, the recent controversy surrounding his winning goal in the World Cup play-off against Ireland may discount him in the final voting.

Samuel Eto’o was part of the deal that saw Ibrahimovic head to Camp Nou and may have fallen out of favour in his final months with the Barca management, but his goal scoring contribution to their success was still noteworthy. He has since gone on to show that he can perform away from Barcelona, and has settled into the Serie A relatively well. The former Barca striker may not only be the strongest Italian-based contender, but also the leading African light, with Didier Drogba and Yaya Toure the other contenders from that region.

Serie A slipping?

Eto’o is one of six candidates for the Ballon d’Or who have spent part of the year in Italy, and by comparison there are certainly significantly fewer than from the Premier League (11) or La Liga (14), but there are still some strong names.

Brazilian international Kaka could be an outside bet, and the 2007 Ballon d’Or winner may have his eyes on this trophy. His input at Milan, whilst undoubtedly appreciated, has become all the more obvious for his absence, and although he is yet to show his best form for Real Madrid, his 2009 season, which involved winning the Confederations Cup - something Messi can’t claim - was still a more than respectable 12 months.

Another pair of Italian-based players who were also part of that Brazilian squad are Maicon and Julio Cesar. The South American duo are integral cogs in the Inter team assembled under Jose Mourinho, and both, with some justification, can lay claim to being considered the best players in the world in their respective positions. 

Premier League pushing

With just three fewer candidates than La Liga, the Premier League is by no means lagging behind, although there is no clear front-runner from England. Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard, Ryan Giggs and Frank Lampard can all lay equal claim to being the strongest British contender to join the like of Michael Owen and the first-ever winner of the competition, Sir Stanley Matthews, amongst the Ballon d’Or alumni. 

The Spanish pair of Fernando Torres and Cesc Fabregas both enjoyed good years, although Torres’ recent spell on the sidelines may mean that Fabregas, who has been inspirational to Arsenal in the new season, may finish ahead of his compatriot in the final voting. 

The rest of La Liga

Whilst Barcelona may dominate the overall list, there is still plenty of talent from La Liga. Fans of Real Madrid will be hoping that Cristiano Ronaldo can usurp Lional Messi both on the playing field and in the minds of those responsible for selecting the Ballon d’Or 2009. Nevertheless, after an injury interrupted start to his career at the Bernabeu, last year’s winner may have to accept a supporting role to Messi.

Xabi Alonso and Iker Casillas’ sporting ambitions may also have remained unrequited over 2009, but they are two other possible candidates to be at least the best of the Spanish-based nominees away from Catalunya. Both have shown they will be important players for Manuel Pellegrini’s side as they look to hook in Barcelona. 

Karim Benzema has shown himself to be a dangerous predator in front of goal. He could, despite finding himself frozen out of the French national team, become a main candidate for next season’s trophy if he can keep the goals coming for his new employers.

Meanwhile Luis Fabiano, David Villa and Diego Forlan have all been in outstanding goal scoring form, helping their respective teams into European competition for the 2009-10 season thanks to a profitable start to the campaign in front of goal. David Villa, in particular, has continued his rich vein of form, whilst Luis Fabiano may have done enough to finish at least the best placed of the five nominated Brazilians.

The best of the rest

Leading the way should be Bordeaux’s inspirational playmaker Yoann Gourcuff, who should probably just pip compatriot Franck Ribery. The young Frenchman helped Bordeaux end Lyon’s seven-year dominance at the top of Ligue 1. Whether either enjoys enough profile to make a significant dent on the overall standings is open to debate. 

Finally there will also be an interesting contest amongst the three contenders from Eastern Europe to see who finishes the highest, with Arsenal’s Andrei Arshavin arguably the best placed out of Nemanja Vidic and Edin Dzeko. 

Walter Townsend, Goal.com

Who you think deserves the Ballon d’Or this year? Can anyone pip Lionel Messi? Goal.com wants to know what you think...