How Should Bettors Approach Man United Following Ten Hag’s Sacking?

The Red Devils have made their worst-ever start to a Premier League season and sit 14th after nine matches.

Ten Hag lifted the League Cup and the FA Cup during his time at Old Trafford. The latter was enough to ensure he kept his job in the summer but INEOS have now called time on the Dutchman’s ill-fated tenure. Ruud Van Nistelrooy will now take charge of the team on a temporary basis while United appoint a new manager, but how can bettors take advantage?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change. Odds were taken on 28/10/2024 from the official bet365 site.

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Damning Data Behind Ten Hag’s Tenure

Manchester United’s performances since the start of last season have been poor. Erik Ten Hag steered the club to a 3rd place finish in his inaugural campaign but they failed to build on that.

The Red Devils slumped to an 8th-place finish last season, their worst ever in the Premier League. They finished with a negative goal difference and picked up just 60 points.

The underlying data suggested that things might have been even worse. United had an expected points (xPTS) tally of 44.52, which would have meant they finished 15th in the Premier League.

Erik Ten Hag’s side were heavily criticised for their approach without the ball last season. Gaps often appeared in the United midfield, enabling the opposition to get a large number of shots away. The Red Devils conceded an average of 17.55 shots per game, only Sheffield United, who finished bottom of the Premier League, conceded more.

INEOS invested heavily in the summer transfer window but that hasn’t paid dividends in terms of results. Manchester United have the sixth-worst xGA in the league this season. They have also scored an average of just 0.89 goals per game, the third-fewest in the division.

Bettors Should Look to United’s Previous Interim Managers

Since Sir Alex Ferguson retired, Manchester United have had nine managers including those who have had the job on an interim basis including Ruud Van Nistelrooy.

Of those eight managers between Sir Alex and Van Nistelrooy, six have won their first competitive matches in charge. Ryan Giggs, Michael Carrick, Ralf Rangnick and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer all had the title of interim manager for their first game in charge. All of them won their first game. Giggs’ United side beat Norwich 4-0 in his opener before Solksjaer’s Red Devils secured a 5-1 win over Cardiff.

Van Nistelrooy’s first test will come against Leicester in the EFL Cup. Like the three interim bosses before him, Ruud carries favour with the Old Trafford faithful having enjoyed a successful spell at the club as a player. He will be looking to replicate what Giggs and Solskjaer achieved by recording an impressive victory. United won 3-0 the last time they hosted Leicester.

Ruud also has experience as a manager. He was the PSV Eindhoven managed for the 2022/23 season. The team finished 2nd under his leadership and were the leading scorers in the Eredivisie, netting an average of 2.62 goals per game. Van Nistelrooy resigned as PSV manager with one game left of the season, citing a lack of support.

The sacking of Erik Ten Hag could also see United drastically improve for the remainder of the season. The Red Devils have finished in the top six on the last two occasions where they have sacked a manager midway through the campaign. Bettors should also pay close attention to the Premier League outright markets following the news with a top 6 finish still available at lengthy odds.