The top two in Group E battle it out in the West Midlands this Thursday evening, with Aston Villa and Legia Warsaw both knowing a point will be good enough to secure at least a place in the play-off round.
Aston Villa vs Legia Warsaw Betting Tips
- Aston Villa to win and both teams to score @ 15/8 with bet365
- Leon Bailey to score any time @ 7/4 with bet365
- Yuri Ribeiro to be booked @ 9/4 with bet365
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Having won the reverse fixture 3-2 earlier in the competition, a victory for Legia would ensure they go through as group winners, but they may find it tough to overcome a Villa side that have been near-perfect on home soil this season.
Villa to claim crucial win
While Villa's away form has been hit and miss this season, they have been sensational at Villa Park and have won nine of their 10 home matches across all competitions - the only loss a League Cup defeat to Everton.
The Villains have won all three of their Europa Conference League fixtures at home this season (qualifiers included) and they head into Thursday's contest on the back of a 2-1 victory at Tottenham, a result that lifted the West Midlands outfit to fourth in the Premier League.
Unai Emery's side have scored 31 goals in the league, with only Manchester City (33) managing more, but they haven't been rock-solid at the back and have kept just two clean sheets in the division.
It has been a similar defensive story in the Conference League, with the Villains recording just one shutout from four attempts and conceding five goals in total so. While the hosts should have enough attacking options to get the job done, Legia will feel they can at least grab a consolation.
The Polish side stuck three past Villa in the reverse fixture and they have scored six goals across their last three away assignments, suggesting the visitors will net in Birmingham.
Aston Villa vs Legia Warsaw Tip 1: Aston Villa to win and both teams to score @ 15/8 with bet365
Jamaican to take his chance
With the fixtures coming thick and fast over the winter period, Emery is expected to tweak his starting XI for this game and that could present an opportunity to Leon Bailey.
The Jamaican international has only made two Premier League starts this season, but he has still managed to score three goals and he will be eager to bolster his claims for more regular playing time.
Bailey has been a favourite under Emery in the Conference League, with the forward starting six matches in the competition and finding the back of the net three times, as he will look to notch another goal against Legia.
Aston Villa vs Legia Warsaw Tip 2: Leon Bailey to score any time @ 7/4 with bet365
Ribeiro to fall foul of the referee
Legia should have plenty of defending to do on Thursday and this is likely to increase the chances of cards being dished out, with five handed out in the reverse fixture.
Yuri Ribeiro was one of those players to be booked in Poland, the first of two cautions he has received in the competition, and he looks like a prime candidate to pick up his third yellow of the campaign.
Aston Villa vs Legia Warsaw Tip 3: Yuri Ribeiro to be booked @ 9/4 with bet365