Botafogo, recently crowned Copa Libertadores champions, sit top with 73 points, whereas current league champions Palmeiras trail with 70.
Is the title race done and dusted, or can Palmeiras find a way to overcome their latest setback and win back-to-back titles in the most unlikely circumstances?
Round 37 could prove decisive. Botafogo travel to Internacional, who are unbeaten at home in their last 13 matches, while Palmeiras are on the road against Cruzeiro, who have only won one of their last 10 league games.
Before backing Botafogo to win the title at 1.25, there are plenty of reasons to think Palmeiras can bounce back - or at least take it to the final day of the season this Sunday.
Meanwhile, Velez are closing in on a famous title, but they are going to be pushed all the way by Huracan, Talleres and Racing Club. Only five points separate the four, but the three teams trailing the leaders have a game in hand. It’s certainly going to the wire in both Argentina and Brazil.
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Botafogo’s tired legs could be an issue
Botafogo were crowned Copa Libertadores champions for the first time in their history on Saturday. That only added to their phenomenal week, having beaten Palmeiras on Wednesday to move ahead of them in the Serie A table with a three-point lead.
However, Botafogo’s odds of 1.25 to win the league are very short, with more twists still to come over the next two rounds, starting with their trip south to face Internacional.
Botafogo may have won the Libertadores final, but this may come at a price. Midfielder Gregore was sent off in the first minute, and Artur Jorge’s team had to play 97 minutes with just ten men.
The team celebrated long into the night before flying back to Rio on Sunday, ahead of their fan celebrations on Monday. However, their third match in seven days is against 4th-placed Internacional, who have lost just one of their last 17 matches.
At home, they are unbeaten in 13, and it’s possible for them to beat a tired Botafogo in their final home match of the season.
In Argentina, the chasing pack are struggling to keep up with Velez’s incredibly strong home form.
Their 1-0 win over Sarmiento kept them top by five points, although the three teams mentioned behind them each have a game in hand. The title race is far from over, with Talleres set to face Huracan this week, and Racing aiming to keep their good form against Estudiantes.
The fixtures favour Racing, with both Velez and Huracan clashing on the final day. However, the Sudamericana winners may need to beat River, which is something they haven’t done since 2017.
"Palmeiras’ fixtures look easier on paper"
If Internacional defeat Botafogo, Palmeiras can reclaim first place heading into the final day of the season, provided they beat Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro are fighting for a Libertadores spot next season, but “fighting” is a term used loosely. That’s because they have only won one in their last ten, and that came against relegation-threatened Criciuma.
Since losing the Copa Sudamericana final last month, Cruzeiro haven’t won their next two matches against Gremio and Bragantino. Palmeiras now have a golden opportunity to win the three vital points.
If this scenario plays out, Botafogo will face Sao Paulo on Sunday, whereas Palmeiras will host Fluminense. Fluminense could avoid relegation by then, but even if they don’t, Palmeiras are much stronger than last year’s Libertadores winners.
Sao Paulo have struggled on their travels this campaign, while Botafogo have only won one of their last four league games at home, drawing with Criciuma, Cuiabá and Vitoria.
Palmeiras’ title hopes now depend on Internacional vs Botafogo, but if there’s one team the league leaders wouldn’t want to face after a gruelling week, it’s Inter away from home.
So, that’s Brazil sorted. However, what’s going to happen in Argentina and can anyone catch Velez?
At this point, it seems unlikely. Velez’s home form has been exceptional, picking up 30 points from just 12 matches, scoring 19 and conceding just two. They may only need a win to seal the title, and they have a perfect opportunity on the final day against Huracan, who have started to falter at the worst possible time.
Velez, however, have the Cup final three days earlier against Central Cordoba, and just like Botafogo, fatigue and a packed schedule in a short period of time could lead to an unexpected slip-up.