Brentford's performance varies significantly between home and away games, with The Bees topping the Premier League's home standings as the best-performing team on their own turf. Brentford (16) lead Liverpool (15) and Manchester City (13) in terms of most points earned at home.
When playing away from home, only Brentford and Southampton sit at the bottom of the Premier League table, with 0 points after five away fixtures.
Is this a worrying trend that’ll haunt Thomas Frank’s side for the season, or will it be corrected? With Everton up next at Goodison Park, followed by a home game against Leicester at the Gtech Stadium, let's explore our betting strategies for both matches.
| Brentford Markets | bet365 Odds |
|---|---|
Everton vs Brentford: Over 2.5 Goals | |
Brentford vs Leicester: Brentford Win and BTTS |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Back Brentford Away Goals Instead of Points
Brentford's challenging schedule is a major factor in their tough start to this season's away games. Facing Fulham, Man United, Spurs, Man City, and Liverpool on the road right from the start makes their zero points quite understandable.
The Toffees might not be as strong as some of Brentford's previous opponents away from home, but Sean Dyche’s Everton will present a stern test. The atmosphere at Goodison Park, with fans close to the pitch, can be intimidating.
Everton are 16th in the league after a challenging start to the season. Four losses and 13 goals conceded from the opening four fixtures made Sean Dyche concerned for his future. However, with only one defeat in the following seven games, morale has improved on Merseyside. Everton now head into the weekend’s game as favourites, with Brentford priced as 3.00 underdogs.
Like Brentford, Everton’s home games are often high-scoring. Three of five this season have seen over 2.5 goals, with the exception of the 0-0 draw against Newcastle and a 1-1 draw with Fulham, which was close to witnessing another goal.
Brentford boasts a league-high with nine out of 11 games breaching the Over 2.5 Goal line, while the other two matches ended with two goals each. With 22 goals scored and 22 conceded in 11 games, The Bees are averaging 4.00 per 90 - another Premier League-high.
Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa will be Brentford’s two main forwards at Goodison Park. They’ve scored 15 goals between them in the Premier League, five more than the entire Everton squad combined.
While this fixture offers Brentford a better chance to secure three points compared to their previous tough away games, the smart bet for this match is on over 2.5 goals at 1.80.
Brentford’s Home Games Continue to be Blockbusters
After six games, Brentford still have the best Premier League home record. No team has scored more goals at home than Brentford (18) this season.
Despite Brentford’s impressive goalscoring at home, there’s only one team, Wolves (14), which has conceded more goals at home than The Bees (11).
While they consistently earn points at home, Thomas Frank’s side is also witnessing a lot of goals at both ends. Their next home opponents, Leicester City, have conceded the most goals away from home (14) after six matches.
Similar to the Everton game, this feels like the perfect head-to-head for goals. Leicester City have shown resilience under Steve Cooper, having already scored two late goals to secure points against Southampton and Ipswich away from home.
The statistics and home performances indicate that Brentford is likely to win the upcoming match. However, with odds at 1.65, the value isn't particularly high. Given Leicester's knack for scoring late in games and when behind, betting on a Brentford win with both teams scoring (BTTS) at 3.00 offers a more enticing option.
All five of Brentford’s home wins this season have overseen the Win and BTTS selection. When playing a newly-promoted team at home in recent seasons, Brentford holds a great record:
4-3 vs Ipswich Town
3-1 vs Southampton
3-1 vs Luton Town
2-0 vs Sheffield United
3-0 vs Burnley
With the above trends likely to continue, the Win and BTTS selection seems like a straightforward angle at a big price.