Why Lewandowski is Still the Value Pick in this La Liga Betting Market

After breaking Ferenc Puskas’ La Liga scoring record, Robert Lewandowski has his eyes firmly set on finishing as La Liga’s top scorer this season.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Lewandowski Smashes Ferenc Puskas’ Proud Record

It’s quite remarkable to see Lewandowski continue to break goalscoring records at the ripe age of 36. His two goals in Barca’s recent 4-1 win over Girona saw him overtake Ferenc Puskas as the top scorer in La Liga aged 36 or older.

Across all competitions, Lewandowski has netted 38 goals in 42 appearances, not to mention a hat-trick of assists.

In the league alone, Lewandowski has now scored 25 goals in 28 matches. That surpasses the 19 goals he scored in 35 appearances last season, as well as the 23 goals in 34 appearances in his debut Barca season in 2022/23.

It’s very rare to see a player’s goalscoring ratio improve into their late 30s, but Lewandowski is proud to be bucking the trend.

Barca’s Upcoming Fixtures Should Benefit Lewandowski

Lewandowski benefits from being part of a Barca side dominating La Liga right now. Barca are on a nine-game winning streak, having scored 30 goals in those nine successive victories.

Lewandowski has scored almost a third (9) of those goals. With Barca heavily favoured in their next five La Liga games, Lewandowski will be eager for more.

Barca’s next five games are against a Real Betis side that struggle away. That’s followed by Leganes, who are now in the relegation zone. They then host Celta Vigo and Mallorca, who also find it hard to pick up points on their travels. This cluster of fixtures ends with a trip to bottom club Real Valladolid.

Looking at the reverse fixtures against these sides earlier in the season, Lewandowski netted three goals across those five games.

If he was to repeat that goal return, the Pole would be on 31 goals with four matches left to play. Lewandowski has only scored more than 31 goals a season three times in his career, all while at Bayern.

There is a strong possibility that he could score more than three goals over this upcoming run of games. After all, Leganes have plummeted down the table with 0.50 points per game in their last eight games.

Meanwhile, Real Valladolid could be relegated by the time Barca visit on 4th May. Celta Vigo have also conceded 1.93 goals per away game this season.

In a recent interview with Diario SPORT, Lewandowski was bullish about wanting to reach 100 goals for Barcelona. He described it as a “dream”, but it’s very much a reality – he only needs three more to enter this exclusive club.

It’s a Heads-Up Battle With Mbappe

Realistically speaking, this season’s battle to finish as La Liga top scorer is now a head-to-head contest. Osasuna’s Ante Budimir, in third place, is ten goals shy of Lewandowski.

Therefore, we focus on second-placed Kylian Mbappe to assess whether the Frenchman can trouble Lewandowski for the Pichichi Trophy.

Mbappe has played one game fewer than Lewandowski this season and has scored 22 times in La Liga. With an average of 0.85 goals per 90 minutes, he is slightly behind Lewandowski's 1.01. 

Lewandowski is also proving to be more lethal in front of goal. The Pole has scored 25 goals from 101 attempts on target, posting a goal conversion rate of 25%.

Mbappe has scored 22 goals from 122 attempts on target, posting a much lower goal conversion rate of 18%.

Real have by no means a difficult run-in. In fact, the average points-per-game (PPG) value of their remaining opponents is just 1.22, compared with Barca’s 1.39. Real’s toughest game left is their trip to the Nou Camp to face Barca and Lewandowski in May.

However, if both players maintain the same output between now and May, it’s hard to see Mbappe leapfrogging Lewandowski to top the scoring charts.

The betting markets are giving Lewandowski a 60% likelihood of winning the Pichichi Trophy this season. We still see this as valuable, given that the Pole’s chances of finishing top scorer are closer to 75%.