Ligue 1 Teams Offer Great Value in Champions League Renaissance

each having serious ambitions to advance to the next stage.

Paris Saint-Germain, Lille OSC, AS Monaco, and Stade Brestois have collectively amassed 24 points, positioning Ligue 1 as the second-best league behind the Premier League, after three match days.

With France’s top flight’s recent reduction to 18 teams aimed at helping players to recover from fatigue, the performance of French clubs in European competitions has become even more vital.

Facing varied fixtures, strengths, and challenges, the question looms: what are the realistic prospects for these French teams to reach the knockout stages of Europe’s premier club competition?

A challenging path

Surprisingly, Paris Saint-Germain have the fewest points among the French teams and have arguably faced the toughest draw in the competition.

The current French champions still have to face Atletico Madrid this Wednesday, along with Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

They have managed just one win in their last six group matches, with recent performances marked by a negative goals-to-expected-goals differential of -3.1.

Despite this rocky start, the Parisians’ history in reaching the advanced stages of the competition provides a psychological edge.

Yet, Luis Enrique, managing one of Europe's youngest squads, faces a challenging tenure. His win ratio stands at just 40% in the Champions League, the lowest for a PSG manager overseeing more than ten games.

Regardless of these setbacks, they are predicted to have a 63% chance of reaching the last 16, the highest of all four Ligue 1 clubs, though it could require a play-off match in February 2025.

Underdogs with a bite

Lille has emerged as one of the standout teams in the Champions League, thanks to a comeback win against Atlético Madrid and a prestigious triumph over the reigning champions, Real Madrid.

With a 91% chance of reaching the playoffs, Bruno Génésio’s team benefits from a favourable schedule, including games against Bologna and Sturm Graz, two of the five lowest-ranked teams by coefficient. Despite this advantage, they still face a tough challenge with an away match at Anfield against Liverpool.

Lille’s performance is heavily dependent on Jonathan David’s prolific form in front of goal.

If Les Dogues manage to avoid losing to Juventus at home this week and earn at least four more points by the end of the year, they have a strong chance of progressing far in the competition.

In their Champions League debut, Brest have captivated fans by staying unbeaten and achieving impressive victories, highlighted by a remarkable 4-0 win at RB Salzburg.

Brest have successfully used a strategy focused on long passes—218 more than any other side in the competition—to capitalise on counter-attacks and exploit their opponents' vulnerabilities.

Their tactical skill and resilience will soon face a challenge against powerhouses like Real Madrid and Barcelona. However, they will host Real Madrid on the final matchday, by which time Carlo Ancelotti’s team might have already qualified, possibly making Brest's task easier.

Ten points may suffice to secure a place in the top 24, and this week's trip to Sparta Prague could help the Breton club achieve a historic result.

A bright young outfit

Monaco is one of this season's surprise packages, boasting a 95% probability of advancing to the playoff phase. Their nine goals rank among the highest in the Champions League, demonstrating their versatile forward line. Remarkably, seven different players have contributed to their goal tally, setting a competition record so far.

While their attack is formidable, Monaco’s defence has revealed occasional lapses, having kept just one clean sheet in their last nine matches across all competitions.

The schedule will get tougher for Adi Hütter’s team, especially with two away games in Italy against Bologna and Inter Milan—where Monaco has historically struggled, winning only three out of 15 matches—along with fixtures against Arsenal and Aston Villa.