5 Underdogs To Back On Matchday Five of the Nations League

This year’s competition has already seen a number of surprises – who might beat the odds this weekend?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Greece vs England (Thursday)

Greece beat England 2-1 at Wembley last month before a comfortable 2-0 win over Ireland. England find themselves in limbo as Thomas Tuchel won’t take charge until the new year, and eight players have pulled out of the squad.

Apart from Jordan Pickford, Kyle Walker, and Harry Kane, this is a severely inexperienced England squad. This might drive players to be more motivated, yet there's valid concern about England's focus under the guidance of an interim manager.

Lee Carsley’s attempts to alter their style of play backfired in the last international break. Germany are the only team to beat Greece in the last 12 months, and the Netherlands are the only nation to win in Athens since October 2021.

• Tip: Greece to win 7/2 with bet365

Belgium vs Italy (Thursday)

With Kevin De Bruyne still absent and Jeremy Doku out injured, Belgium are not at their strongest. However, that didn't prevent them from rallying from two goals down to secure a draw in Rome last month. There’s value in taking an in-form Italy in this match.

The Azzurri are slight underdogs after wins away to France and Israel. Third-placed finishes in 2021 and 2023 indicate they take the Nations League more seriously than many of their European peers.

Luciano Spalletti’s side isn’t packed with the biggest names, but they have quietly put together a decent run of results on either side of the Euros.

• Tip: Italy to win 7/4 with bet365

Denmark vs Spain (Friday)

Unai Simon, Ferran Torres, Rodri, Dani Carvajal, and Lamine Yamal are among the players unavailable for Spain. Denmark have not lost a home match since the group phase of the Nations League in 2022.

La Roja only won 1-0 when these teams met in Murcia last month, and they are far from full strength for this fixture.

Denmark have avoided defeat in 17 of their last 20 matches. One of those losses was a dead rubber in Euro 2024 qualifying. Since Spain have already guaranteed qualification and two draws will be enough for Denmark to make the quarters, we are backing the Red and Whites to avoid defeat.

• Tip: Denmark to win or draw 19/20 with bet365

Switzerland vs Serbia (Friday)

Switzerland only have one point from their first four Nations League matches. Three of Serbia’s four points were picked up when they beat Switzerland 2-0 in Leskovac in October.

Confidence is low in the Swiss ranks. They have only won four of their last 17 matches across all competitions.

Serbia’s form isn’t much better, and they have notably struggled on the road over the last few years. However, they won away to Sweden before the Euros and have the attacking firepower to get a result in Zurich.

• Tip: Serbia to win 7/2 with bet365

Albania vs Czech Republic (Saturday)

Nations League B Group 1 is fiercely competitive. Three points separate the four teams. Third-placed Albania are one point behind the group-leading Czech Republic.

Albania won away to Georgia last time out, and beat Ukraine in Prague on matchday one. Their Euros performances captured neutrals across the continent, and while they are missing several important players through injury, there’s still plenty of quality in this squad.

The Czech Republic are lacking firepower against an energetic Albanian team. Tomas Soucek is the only player in the squad with more than six international goals. They lost 3-0 in Tirana in Euro 2024 qualifying, and their only competitive away wins since Euro 2020 were against Belarus and the Faroe Islands.

• Tip: Albania to win 9/4 with bet365