Players are reluctant to take a chance from afar and the game looks very different now compared to a decade ago.
Pep Guardiola’s arrival at Manchester City has sparked a change in how many teams approach the game. Possession is a priority and the underlying data helps players identify the optimum positions to get a shot away. Surprisingly, City have scored the most goals outside the box this season, indicating there is always room for a speculative effort in England’s top flight. This is one of many surprising facts about this growing trend which we’ll explore below.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Wolves vs Bournemouth - Mattheus Cunha to Score from Outside the Box | |
Manchester United vs Everton - Bruno Fernandes to Score from Outside the Box | |
Chelsea vs Aston Villa - Cole Palmer to Score from Outside the Box |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Goal Numbers Remain Close to Overall Average
There was an average of 9.1 shots taken outside the box per 90 minutes of Premier League football last season. That’s significantly lower than the average of 12.1 shots per 90 from 10 years earlier. 33.1% of the total shots in the top tier of English football last season came from outside a box, 9.9% fewer than the 2013/14 campaign.
Despite the drop in the long-range shots, the goal level has remained fairly consistent. Since the Premier League’s inception, there has been an average of 150.3 goals scored from outside the box per season.
There were 144 goals scored from outside the area last term, which isn’t significantly lower than the overall average. The current season has seen 44 goals scored outside of the box so far which is a slight drop per matchday.
Attacking Midfielders Dominate the Longshot Charts
While the overall figures are dropping, some players buck the trend. Let’s take a look at some of the long-range marksmen in the Premier League right now.
Mattheus Cunha
Wolves may be averaging just 3.3 shots from outside the box per game but that accounts for over 31% of their overall attempts. Gary O’Neil’s side have started the season poorly but have scored 20 goals, the eighth most in the division. Mattheus Cunha has bagged seven of those.
Cunha has scored three goals from outside of the box already this season, more than any other player. None of his 12 goals in the previous Premier League game came at this range.
Cunha had 44 shots from outside the penalty area last season, he has already had half of that tally in the current campaign so he is making the conscious decision to have more speculative attempts. He looks a great value long-shot bet for a long-shot goal.
Bruno Fernandes
Manchester United are averaging 13.8 shots per game and a whopping 38% of those have come from outside of the penalty area. Breaking teams down has been a real problem for the Red Devils.
Ruben Amorim’s system also has two players in prime position to test the goalkeeper from a distance. Sporting, Amorim’s former club, have scored the most goals outside the box in the Liga Portugal this season with six.
Bruno Fernandes has already scored once from outside the box this season. He bagged five in his six competitive matches before the midweek clash with Bodo/Glimt. Three of those goals came from shots outside of the opposition penalty area.
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer has been a sensation since making the move to Chelsea from Manchester City. Like the other players on this list, he tends to operate in the space behind the striker and this gives him the room to flourish.
Palmer scored three goals from outside the area last season but has two with less than a third of the current campaign gone. He has also been having more attempts from outside the area with an average of 1.5 per 90 minutes played, a 0.3 increase from last season.