With Chelsea losing four of their last five and Brentford picking up four points from their last four games, who are the underdogs to watch?
| 2025/26 EPL top-five finish market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1/16 |
| Aston Villa | 1/12 |
| Liverpool | 1/3 |
| Chelsea | 7/4 |
| Everton | 16/1 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Manchester United look home and hosed despite Leeds loss
Manchester United slipped to a disappointing home defeat to Leeds United on Monday night. The Red Devils are in third place on goal difference, while still holding a seven-point advantage over sixth-placed Chelsea.
Michael Carrick’s Red Devils have made Old Trafford something of a rare fortress this season. Aside from the Leeds loss, they average 2.06 points per home game. It’s been less fruitful away from Old Trafford, averaging just 1.38 points per away game.
Their remaining away fixtures seem challenging, with trips to Chelsea, Sunderland and Brighton. However, they only need six or seven points more to keep Chelsea at bay. Those points should come from home clashes with Brentford and Nottingham Forest, while an inconsistent Liverpool await on May 3.
Aston Villa have returned to winning ways at the ideal time
Like United, it would take a dreadful drop-off in form for Villa to miss out on a top-five finish. They currently have a seven-point advantage over Chelsea. Unai Emery’s men have also picked up four points from their last two games, bouncing back from three straight defeats.
Villa still average two points per game at Villa Park this season. They’ve conceded fewer than a goal per game in front of their own supporters. They’ve only picked up two points from their last four away games, which is a growing concern.
Fortunately for Villa, their remaining away fixtures appear largely kind. They visit mid-table Fulham and a Burnley side that should have their relegation confirmed by 9 May. Their final game of the season is a trip to Man City. This could be dangerous if Guardiola’s men can still pip Arsenal to the title, but it could just as easily become a dead rubber for City.
Ultimately, Villa’s next four games - Sunderland, Fulham, Tottenham and Burnley - should yield enough points to seal their top-five spot.
Liverpool could still be vulnerable with big games on the horizon
As it stands, Liverpool are limping over the finish line in fifth place. The Reds are somehow within three points of third-placed Manchester United. That’s despite averaging just 1.31 points per game away from Anfield. They’ve lost almost half (7) of their 16 away fixtures so far this season.
The Reds still have some tricky tests to come on the road. They visit city rivals Everton, as well as third and fourth-placed sides Manchester United and Aston Villa. Both of them have been strong on their own patches in 2025/26.
With their Champions League hopes now firmly extinguished by PSG, Arne Slot’s full focus is ensuring UCL football for the club in 2026/27.
Chelsea need a big performance against United
Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea have spurned multiple opportunities to close the gap on fifth-placed Liverpool of late. The Blues have lost four of their last five games to stay four points behind the Reds.
Chelsea have little time to mope. A home game against third-placed Manchester United awaits this weekend, with Lisandro Martinez to miss out through suspension. They still travel to Liverpool next month, which could decide their fate.
They also have easier fixtures against Forest, Spurs and Sunderland. The former two could still be desperate for points in their battle for survival.
Chelsea’s home form has been questionable this season, averaging just 1.44 points per home game. They need to make Stamford Bridge a fortress in their final three home games to close the gap on Liverpool.
Everton could still have a big say with a favourable run-in
With ten points from their last five EPL games, Everton are the most likely outsiders to watch for a top-five finish. David Moyes’ men have some six-pointers in their six remaining games. None are bigger than the first Merseyside derby in their new stadium against Liverpool.
Victory over the Reds could move the Toffees to within two points of Arne Slot’s side. They also face West Ham, Crystal Palace and Sunderland, followed by a final-day meeting with relegation-threatened Tottenham.
Their toughest test is a home game with Manchester City, who could still be desperate for the points in their title charge. With five winnable games in their last six matches, the Toffees are still in the top-five picture.