Felix Would Be Game-Changing Signing For Villa

Felix Would Be Game-Changing Signing For Villa

Aston Villa exceeded all expectations last season to qualify for the Champions League. They have followed up with an ambitious summer transfer window, which includes links to Atletico Madrid forward João Félix.

• João Félix was joint-seventh in expected goals per 90 in La Liga last season.
• Villa were only 10th in the Premier League in progressive passes.
• Félix ranked in the 87th percentile in progressive passes received.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Attacking Firepower Needed After Diaby Sale

Villa clearly need more firepower in the final third. Ollie Watkins was phenomenal last season, finishing with 32 goal contributions in the league. Watkins, though, only had a combined expected goals and assists fi of 24.2, suggesting some regression is likely this season. Moussa Diaby, one of the other two players with an expected goal contribution in double figures, has been sold to Al-Ittihad. Another regular contributor, Douglas Luiz, has departed for Juventus. 

Samuel Iling-Junior and Jaden Philogene are exciting upside signings with some excellent metrics last season. It’s not enough for Villa given that the pair are unproven at the top level. Watkins and Leon Bailey are the only players they can rely on in the final third at the moment, and their workload will only increase with the challenge of the Champions League. 

With Diaby gone and Jhon Durán seemingly on his way to West Ham, the Villains will surely invest in a forward or two. João Félix, coming off a loan at Barcelona, has consistently been linked with a move to Villa Park. It’s the sort of ambitious signing we have become accustomed to from Villa, dating back to their acquisitions of Bailey, Philippe Coutinho, and Pau Torres. 

Félix’s versatility makes him a great fit with Bailey and Watkins. There would be no issue playing Watkins and Félix together, which is the kind of partnership that could keep them in top-four contention in 2024-25. They are currently out at 4.50 to finish in the top four, with bookies adjusting for their Champions League commitments and how considerably they overachieved their expected goals last season. 

Cannot Overstate Potential Impact Of Felix

Villa were seventh in expected goals generated last season, and a fair distance behind the top six. While Félix is more of a scorer than a creator, his off-ball movement would be a real asset to this team. Villa were just 10th in progressive passes last term – Félix was in the 87th percentile in progressive passes received and in the 86th percentile in touches in the penalty area. 

As well as Watkins played, Villa need another reliable scorer. Félix does not have a prolific track record, but he clocked 0.51 expected goals per 90 for Barcelona in 2023-24. That was better than any Villa player other than Leander Dendoncker and Coutinho, who played a combined total of 137 minutes. 

It’s worth remembering, too, that Félix is only 24 years old. Yes, he has failed to achieve his full potential so far but there’s still plenty of potential for improvement. There were also moments that he shone during his brief stint with Chelsea, which will give further encouragement that he can be productive in the Premier League. 

Acquiring Félix would raise Villa’s ceiling. We would consider backing them at 4.50 for a top-four finish given the issues looming around Newcastle, Chelsea, and Manchester United. The odds for a top-six placing are appealing, too.