The unforgiving nature of English football's top flight means that one misstep, or even a hint of instability, can send a manager hurtling toward the exit door.
Last season saw only three managers lose their jobs during the campaign, with the first coming in December. The previous season saw 15 staggering managerial changes take place, highlighting the unpredictable nature of this league.
The pressure is immense, the stakes are high, and for some managers, the writing may already be on the wall. But who is most likely to be the first casualty of the season?
- In 2023/2024, there were only three sackings during the season, with the first coming in December.
- Chelsea have changed seven managers since 2016.
- 2023/2024 season was Manchester United’s worst-ever finish in the Premier League, as they ended up 8th in the table.
| Next Manager To Leave | Odds |
|---|---|
Enzo Maresca (Chelsea) | |
Sean Dyche (Everton) | |
Erik ten Hag (Manchester United) |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Enzo Maresca, gone by November?
The Italian, stepping into the top flight for the first time in his managerial career, is already grappling with sky-high expectations, the club’s recent underachievement, and a fanbase with little patience for mediocrity. Chelsea, under Todd Boehly's ownership, has maintained a revolving-door policy for managers, much like the Roman Abramovich era.
The Blues have seen five different coaches in just two years. This history of impatience, combined with Maresca's unconvincing pre-season results and an opening-day defeat at home against Manchester City, has done little to inspire confidence. Maresca’s commitment to playing the ball out from the back has yet to resonate with his squad, leaving Chelsea vulnerable to high-pressing opponents.
With a squad full of new signings and existing stars trying to find cohesion, any slip-ups in the early stages of the season could lead to an ugly, swift downfall. The odds for Maresca to be the first coach to lose his job are currently 8.00, implying a 12.5% probability of this happening. So, is it worth taking a punt?
Right before the November international break (10-18 November), the Blues are set to face a series of back-to-back high-stakes matches against Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United, and Arsenal. Poor results in these high-profile matches could see Chelsea languishing in the lower half of the table—a situation that the club's hierarchy, fans, and the media would find unacceptable.
The November international break often serves as a natural point for clubs to reassess their managerial positions. Given Chelsea's track record, Maresca could find himself in the firing line if his team fails to perform right before the action-packed winter period.
Erik and Sean walking on a tightrope
Sean Dyche's defiance in the face of adversity has become a hallmark of his career, but this season at Everton could prove to be his toughest test yet.
The Toffees are facing grim prospects, with financial struggles, ongoing uncertainty over ownership, and the ever-present threat of relegation. After a very poor performance against Brighton, Dyche’s ability to navigate these choppy waters has already been put to the test. Despite doing an admirable job last season to secure Everton's Premier League status, Dyche’s position is far from secure. Everton’s fragile situation means that even a poor start could lead to panic within the club’s hierarchy, forcing them to make a change.
The situation at Goodison Park is so volatile that it’s hard to rule anything out.
Manchester United's Erik Ten Hag might have survived the club’s worst-ever Premier League campaign last season, but his position is far from secure. Despite showing signs of competence in the transfer market, the Dutchman remains under intense scrutiny.
The Red Devils’ summer was marred by ongoing questions about the club’s structure and long-term strategy, and it feels as though Ten Hag is one misstep away from being thrust back into the spotlight.
United’s new controlling shareholders, INEOS, have shown patience so far, but that patience could wear thin quickly if results don't improve. Ten Hag's job could hinge on United's early season form; a poor start could force INEOS to pull the trigger and bring in someone new, especially if they already have a replacement lined up.
The spectre of a sudden, embarrassing U-turn looms large over Old Trafford.