Is it Time to Back Harry Kane to End His Trophy Drought at Munich UCL Final?

Since his move from Tottenham to Bayern Munich in the summer of 2023, the question lingering in the footballing world is whether Harry Kane will finally claim the elusive first major trophy of his career.

Vincent Komapany’s side's upcoming fixtures also offer scope to savvy bettors to back a historic double for the Bavarians.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

It’s getting a bit ‘Spursy’

Kane’s latest setback was Bayern's exit from the DFB-Pokal in the round of 16, losing to Xabi Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen in a 1-0 defeat at the Allianz Arena.

England’s all-time top goalscorer didn’t feature in the match due to a thigh injury he sustained in their previous game against Borussia Dortmund. However, critics and fans expressed their disappointment, with some accusing him of “turning Bayern Munich into Spurs.”

While the DFB-Pokal exit is certainly a blow, Bayern are on course to win their 34th German title and make it to the Champions League Round of 16, which opens up interesting opportunities for bettors.

Domestic glory in sight

Bayern currently sit six points clear at the top, with 33 points—exactly as expected from xG (expected goals) models.

Kane's impact has been remarkable, scoring 14 goals in 12 appearances and quickly reaching the milestone of 50 Bundesliga goals faster than any player in history.

Kane’s injury isn’t expected to rule him out for an extended period, with a possible return against RB Leipzig on 20 December.

The prospect of him lifting the Bundesliga Meisterschalethis season is not just plausible but probable, with a commanding 95.9% likelihood, according to our in-house model.

A value bet in the Champions League

This favorable position in the league might offer Kompany the opportunity to strategically rest players for crucial Champions League fixtures.

Bayern currently sit as the fifth favorite to claim Europe’s most prestigious competition, with a 9.7% chance. Despite their current 13th-place position in the new 36-team league format, they hold a 60.1 percent probability of finishing in the top eight, thus avoiding the play-offs.

Intriguingly, last season's finalist, Borussia Dortmund, has a higher chance—72.5 percent—of reaching the top-eight phase.

While a Champions League victory might seem ambitious, Bayern's history in the competition signifies that they should not be underestimated.

The average odds of 4.5, with an implied probability of 22.2 percent, are significantly lower than those for Nuri Şahin’s side, whose odds range from 21 to 26.

Moreover, the final's location at Bayern's home ground, the Allianz Arena, might serve as a favorable omen for the Bavarians, as they were the last team to host a Champions League final in their own stadium, back in the 2011-2012 season.

Bayern currently hold odds of 2.50 as the Bundesliga's top finisher in the Champions League league phase.

To make this happen, Borussia Dortmund must lose points in at least one of their upcoming three games, which feature home matches against Barcelona and Shakhtar Donetsk at the Westfalenstadion, as well as an away game against Bologna.

Since last season, Borussia has maintained a record alongside Real Madrid for the number of Champions League games won—11 victories—and they have dropped only two points at home this campaign.