The football might be hard to watch at times, but Europe’s lowest-ranked international teams still offer plenty of betting opportunities.
Think of San Marino, Cyprus, and Andorra - that’s the kind of level we are focusing on today as we ask the question: how should we bet on Nations League minnows?
| Nations League Markets | Betway Odds |
|---|---|
Moldova Win and U2.5 Goals (vs Andorra) | |
Cyprus vs Lithuania - Under 2.5 Goals |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Everything Points to a Low-scoring Affair in Andorra
Andorra sit third and at the bottom of Nations League Group D with zero points, trailing behind Malta in second and Moldova in first. With zero points, they’re statistically the worst-performing side in the competition, reflecting the Nations League hierarchy. Group D is Europe’s worst, where the likes of San Marino and Liechtenstein face off.
The Andorrans have no realistic chance of qualifying - they would need to beat both Moldova and Malta in back-to-back victories. Considering they haven’t scored a goal against either yet, such a victorious consecutive streak seems unlikely. Only Kazakhstan and Andorra are yet to score a Nations League goal in this current edition.
Instead, this match is likely to see Moldova taking an aggressive approach. The Moldovans need to keep their hopes of topping the group alive, with Malta vs Andorra next on the line. If Moldova win and Malta defeat Andorra, Moldova will lead the group, whilst tied on points with Malta due to a better head-to-head record.
This is an important game for Moldova. We’ve seen Andorra don’t have a lot to offer going forward, but we can expect them to put up a fight. Pride is on the line in Andorra, and that might help them keep the scoreline respectable, as they did with a 2-0 result in the fixture in Moldova.
If Andorra fail to score once again, like they did in their opening two Nations League games (0-1 and 2-0), and Moldova - who need a win - take the lead, this game could simply drift into a low-scoring win for the visitors. Excluding their most recent 2-0 win against fellow minnows San Marino, Andorra haven’t scored a goal in 12 of their last 13 international matches since September 2023.
We can back a low-scoring Moldovan win at odds of 3.00 by adding Under 2.5 Goals in the bet builder function. This seems like an enticing angle for a game that might not be the most thrilling to watch.
Leave the Popcorn at home as Lithuania travel to Cyprus
The September meeting between these two teams is hardly one for the history books. Cyprus claimed their first win in the Nations League group with a 0-1 victory over Lithuania. The Cypriots were afforded one Big Chance, and they took it. The hosts battled for an equaliser, registering three Big Chances, but their lack of quality in forward areas meant they couldn't do enough to affect the scoreline.
That September night mirrored a previous meeting in November 2023, which ended with the same score: 1-0 to the hosts in Cyprus. Cyprus have scored just one goal in the Nations League but find themselves above Lithuania, who have four losses from four. Cyprus have scored one goal and conceded ten, whilst Lithuania have registered three strikes and conceded eight.
These are two nations that frequently concede goals, but they struggle to score consistently enough to emerge victorious on the international stage. If recent trends continue and both sides get chances, it's hard to picture three or more quality moments in front of goal.
After all, this is a match where there's nothing on the line in terms of progression from the group. At best, Cyprus can only match Kosovo’s nine points for second place - but even then, Kosovo would edge out Cypriots on head-to-head results, having already beaten them twice to nil in the group.
With no real stakes beyond pride, this could be one of those international fixtures where not much action unfolds. With Under 2.5 Goals priced at 1.70, that might be the most promising angle here.