Dortmund vs Bayern Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Dortmund vs Bayern
- Borussia Dortmund win or draw with odds of @2.15 on Betway, equating to a 44.4% implied probability.
- Over 3.5 total goals with odds of @1.90 on Betway, indicating a 53.5% implied probability.
- Borussia Dortmund second half win or draw with odds of @1.80 on Betway, representing a 54.6% implied probability.
A 2-2 draw is predicted between Dortmund and Bayern on Saturday.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
The first Klassiker of the season takes place at Signal Iduna Park on Saturday night with Bayern Munich holding a six-point lead atop the Bundesliga table.
Borussia Dortmund are underdogs for this match. They are yet to win three matches in a row this season and haven’t won back-to-back Bundesliga matches. Ahead of this weekend’s fixtures, they sit fifth in the table, 10 points behind Bayern.
Summer signing Serhou Guirassy sat out the win over Freiburg at the weekend and was rested for Wednesday’s match with Dinamo Zagreb.
Bayern beat PSG 1-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday night. FC Hollywood have now won seven straight matches to nil across all competitions, which has seen them build a significant lead at the top of the table.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen are the only teams to take points off Bayern in the Bundesliga this season. Dortmund can take some confidence from Bayern’s Champions League defeats to Aston Villa and Barcelona, however.
Probable Lineups for Dortmund vs Bayern
Dortmund probable XI:
Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Nmecha, Gross; Malen, Brandt, Gittens; Guirassy.
Bayern probable XI:
Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Min-Jae, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Musiala, Gnabry; Kane.
Backing Dortmund’s Stellar Home Form
The first of our Dortmund vs Bayern predictions is backing Dortmund to avoid defeat at home. Bayern’s form is phenomenal, with seven wins and seven clean sheets in a row, but Dortmund boast a 100% record at Signal Iduna Park this term.
While Bayern have an excellent recent record in Dortmund, we cannot overlook just how good Dortmund have been in front of their home fans. They have already had five wins by multiple goals at Signal Iduna Park, and have recorded wins over RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt.
Bayern, of course, are their sternest test yet, which is why we are taking the double chance rather than Dortmund to win the match.
- Dortmund vs Bayern Bet 1: Borussia Dortmund or draw @ 2.15 with Betway
Goals Galore in Dortmund
Dortmund’s 2-0 win when these sides met in March was an anomaly. It was the first time a Klassiker had produced under 3.5 total goals since May 2020.
Goals are inevitable when these two teams meet, even with Bayern keeping seven consecutive clean sheets. Vincent Kompany’s team will focus on creating scoring opportunities, which may naturally lead to conceding some goals.
Dortmund’s 14.1 expected goals against indicate Bayern’s attack should do plenty of damage themselves. We would even be tempted to take over 4.5 at 3.00.
- Dortmund vs Bayern Bet 2: Over 3.5 total goals @1.90 with Betway
Strong Second Half from Black and Yellows
This is the third and final of our value Dortmund vs Bayern predictions for Saturday’s Klassiker. Dortmund have been a much better team in the second half of matches, having won only three of their 11 first halves in the Bundesliga this season.
They have won five and drawn three of their 11 second halves thus far. While Bayern are similarly dominant in the first and second halves, they have only won one of the last six second halves in Der Klassiker.
This is a bet worth backing despite Dortmund having less time to prepare following their Champions League match against Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday.
Dortmund vs Bayern Bet 3: Borussia Dortmund to win or draw the second half @ 1.80 with Betway