The top eight will progress directly to the Round of 16, while teams placed between ninth and twenty-fifth will enter a play-off round to qualify for the last 16. Gone are the traditional group stages, replaced by a more competitive and unpredictable league-style phase.
For Roma and Lazio, this new era presents a fascinating challenge, but their chances of success differ significantly.
After a nervy play-off victory against Hungary’s Puskas Akademia, which saw Fiorentina scrape through on penalties after finishing extra time with just nine men, the Viola are set to begin their journey in the revamped Europa Conference League.
Just like the Champions League and Europa League, the Conference League has undergone a major transformation, now featuring a single group stage with each team playing six matches—three at home and three away—against six different opponents from six seeded pots. Can La Viola reach their third final in a row?
Roma have reached at least the semi-finals of a European competition in the last four seasons.
In 2023/2024 Lazio were knocked out by Bayern Munich in the Champions League’s Round of 16
Fiorentina have lost the last two Conference League finals against West Ham and Olympiacos.
Europa League Outright Winner | Odds (Each Way, 1-2) |
Roma | |
Lazio | |
Conference League Outright Winner | Odds (Each Way, 1-2) |
Fiorentina |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Contrasting fortunes for the Capital’s teams
The draw has handed last season’s semi-finalists, Roma, a set of fixtures that, while challenging, are far from insurmountable.
Their toughest test will undoubtedly be away at Tottenham, one of the strongest sides in the competition and a favourite for direct qualification to the Round of 16.
However, beyond Spurs, Roma’s path appears more navigable. Eintracht Frankfurt presents a solid but beatable challenge, while Braga, AZ Alkmaar, Dynamo Kyiv, Union St. Gilloise, Athletic Bilbao, and Elfsborg offer a balanced mix of winnable games.
According to simulations by Football Meets Data, securing a play-off spot will likely require at least 9 points, a target well within Roma’s reach, especially given their potential to pick up crucial points against teams from the second and third pots.
However, Roma’s true aim will be to finish in the top eight, ensuring a direct route to the Round of 16. With projections indicating that 15-16 points could be the benchmark for this, Roma will need to stay focused and take full advantage of their home matches.
While De Rossi’s men might feel cautiously optimistic, their city rivals, Lazio, face a much tougher road ahead. The draw pitted the Biancocelesti against high-calibre opponents like Porto and Ajax, both of whom have strong domestic records and extensive European experience.
In addition, Real Sociedad and Nice round off a group of fixtures that offer little respite.
Lazio will have to battle hard to surpass the 9-10 point threshold, likely necessary to secure at least a play-off berth, but the prospect of finishing in the top eight looks daunting.
Reaching 15 points seems a tall order given the difficulty of their schedule.
La Viola looking for another final
For the third consecutive season, Fiorentina represent Italy in the Conference League, coming off the back of two straight finals defeats.
Raffaele Palladino’s side's journey in the new-look Europa Conference League looks promising.
Avoiding any heavyweight opposition, like Chelsea and Real Betis, from the outset, the Viola have a realistic shot at finishing among the top eight, securing a direct route to the knockout stages
LASK and APOEL Nicosia are arguably the toughest opponents Fiorentina will face, with both sides boasting European experience. However, playing LASK at home should give Fiorentina the upper hand. The Austrians are solid but lack the depth and quality that Fiorentina possess, making the home fixture a must-win for the Italians.
APOEL Nicosia represents a challenging away game, with seasoned striker El Arabi leading their attack and former Serie A goalkeeper Vid Belec between the sticks.
The trip to Portugal to face Vitoria Guimaraes could be a potential banana skin. Guimaraes, under coach Borges, are a competitive side at home and could complicate Fiorentina’s plans if taken lightly. Similarly, St. Gallen should not be underestimated, having knocked out Trabzonspor in the play-offs, a feat that should serve as a warning to Fiorentina not to underestimate the Swiss side.
The fixtures against The New Saints and Pafos, both at home, offer La Viola the chance to secure crucial points. The New Saints rely heavily on physical play, but Fiorentina’s superior quality should see them through comfortably.
Pafos, the Cypriot underdogs who edged past Cluj to reach the group stage, round off Fiorentina’s fixture list. On paper, this should be a straightforward win for the Italian side.