Premier League Goal Milestone Chasers Are A Smart Choice For Bettors

This weekend, big players, from Bernardo Silva to Cole Palmer, are poised to reach their personal scoring milestones.

We reviewed statistics, odds, and fixture difficulty to determine which player is most likely to score for the annals.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Cole Palmer: Chasing his 30th in a London Derby

Chelsea’s 21-year-old forward, Cole Palmer, followed up his breakthrough season of 22 goals by netting an additional seven goals.

However, his form has recently declined. With only one goal in his last four games, despite taking 14 shots, Palmer is missing the clinical precision and calmness in front of goal that made him famous. His expected goals (xG) have decreased to 0.44 per game, compared to 0.61 last season. 

However, the English international often delivers on big stages, such as the Euro 2024 final, and has scored against Sunday’s opponent, Arsenal, albeit from the penalty spot. 

Palmer is currently outperforming his xG by 2.70 and will face last season’s best defence, although the Gunners haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last four away games.

John Duran: A long shot if he does not start

John Duran, an enigmatic player with ten league appearances, all as a substitute, has scored four times this season. 

The Colombian forward faces a tough challenge in Liverpool, who boast the league's stingiest defence, having conceded just six goals. Notably, no team has managed to score a post-75th minute goal at Anfield this season, complicating Duran’s task if he doesn't start. 

Given these circumstances and his likely continued role on the bench, Duran’s chances of reaching ten Premier League goals before the international break appear slim.

Jordan Ayew: Super Sub or More?

Ghanaian forward Jordan Ayew has earned a reputation as Leicester City's super-sub this season, with two late goals that gave the Foxes three points.

After his standout performances against Ipswich and Southampton, Ayew now takes on Manchester United.

United are experiencing their worst league start in 40 years. They’re defensively vulnerable, with eight goals conceded, and have failed to win post-Europa League games this season. 

Although Ayew faces strong competition upfront, his ability to impact games, combined with United’s brittle back-line, suggests he could dramatically reach the 40-goal mark from the bench.

Bernardo Silva: Stats on his side

Bernardo Silva has yet to open his scoring account in the Premier League this season, but history favours him when City travel to Brighton. 

Silva has scored four goals in 15 encounters with the Seagulls, a team City has beaten 12 times since 2018, never failing to score. 

Brighton’s xGA (expected goals against) per game is over 1.5 this season, and as City’s third most frequent shooter, the Portugues represents excellent value to score his first league goal of the season and close in on 40 Premier League goals.

Marcus Tavernier: The unlikely favourite

Marcus Tavernier stands out as an unexpected contender in this race. 

With one goal this season amid Bournemouth’s rebounding form, his track record from recent campaigns and increasing shot volume work in his favour. 

Bournemouth travels to Brentford, who haven’t found solace defensively, allowing 18.8 shots per 90 minutes — the worst in the division. 

This presents a fertile ground for the winger, who has increased his shot average to 2.62 per 90 minutes, compared to prior seasons. 

His ability to exploit the Bees’ defensive shortcomings may see him reach a career milestone of 10 Premier League goals.