Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Liverpool vs Brighton
- Over 1.5 first-half goals with odds of @2.00 on Betway, equating to a 48.8% implied probability.
- Liverpool to win and over 2.5 total goals with odds of @1.77 on Betway, equating to a 55.6% implied probability.
- Liverpool to win 2-1 with odds of @8.50 on Betway, equating to a 16.7% implied probability.
Liverpool are predicted to beat Brighton 2-1.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Anfield is the venue for Liverpool and Brighton’s Premier League clash on Saturday. Fans are eagerly discussing their Liverpool vs Brighton Predictions as the match approaches, and so are we.
A draw at Arsenal last weekend saw Liverpool relinquish top spot in the Premier League, but Arne Slot’s team remain only one point off the summit. They are crucially four points clear of Arsenal.
The transition from Jurgen Klopp to Slot has been seamless. Ryan Gravenberch has been the main beneficiary, but Slot also seems to have struck a balance between attack and defence.
Brighton sit sixth, only two points off third. Their start to the season has been impressive, even if the underlying metrics indicate they have ridden some good fortune thus far.
Securing a draw at Arsenal and a victory at Newcastle puts the visitors in a strong position ahead of this match. They have also beaten Manchester United and Tottenham this season, and have avoided defeat in three of their last four league matches at Anfield.
Probable Lineups for Liverpool vs Brighton
Liverpool probable XI:
Kelleher; Alexander-Arnold, van Dijk, Konate, Robertson; Jones, Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Nunez, Diaz.
Brighton probable XI:
Verbruggen; Veltman, Hecke, Julio, Estupinan; Kadioglu, Baleba, Ayari, Mitoma; Rutter, Ferguson.
Quick Start
Both Liverpool and Brighton have seen more goals in the first halves of their Premier League matches compared to the second halves.
This trend is evident as four of Brighton’s last six matches have seen two or more goals in the first half, including a notable instance where Chelsea scored four goals in the first half against them a few weeks ago.
Similarly, Liverpool has seen three of their last five Premier League fixtures hit the first-half over. With both teams showing a propensity for high-scoring starts, there's significant value in betting on an action-packed opening period.
- Liverpool vs Brighton Bet 1: Over 1.5 first-half goals with odds of @2.00 on Betway
Home Win and the Over
Over 2.5 total goals have landed in 56% of Liverpool’s league matches so far this season. It has cashed in six out of Brighton’s nine league fixtures this term, and 61% of their matches in 2023-24.
Liverpool are clearly the better team. We don’t expect a repeat of Nottingham Forest’s shock win at Anfield, despite Brighton’s impressive record in this fixture.
With Liverpool heavily favoured to win this match, pairing a home win with over 2.5 total goals is a good way to get to a reasonable price.
- Liverpool vs Brighton Bet 2: Liverpool to win and over 2.5 total goals @1.77 on Betway
Narrow Home Win Backed at Anfield
Liverpool have scored multiple goals in all but three of their matches so far this season (prior to facing Brighton in the League Cup on Wednesday). Brighton have only failed to score once this term, and rank below the Premier League average for expected goals conceded.
All of the teams with a worse expected goal difference than Brighton are in a relegation battle. Liverpool are ahead of all Premier League teams except for Manchester City.
The visitors will challenge the home side for the three points, but the hosts' superior quality is likely to secure them a narrow win.
Given these statistics, Liverpool vs Brighton Predictions lean towards a closely contested match, with Liverpool's superior form likely tipping the scales in their favour for a narrow home victory.
- Liverpool vs Brighton Bet 3: Liverpool to win 2-1 @8.50 on Betway