Maximilian Beier and Thijs Dallinga have faced a challenging season thus far, despite both reaching double digits in goals during the 2023/2024 campaign. Yet, statistics suggest their scoring droughts may soon come to an end.
Beier, who scored 16 goals with Hoffenheim, which earned him a transfer to Champions League finalists Borussia Dortmund, is poised to take on an overperforming RB Leipzig defence. Meanwhile, Dallinga, still finding his footing in Serie A with Bologna, has an opportunity to capitalise on Lecce’s fragile backline.
Data and historical trends hint at a long-awaited breakthrough for both strikers.
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
More than just a one-season wonder
Maximilian Beier has not had many opportunities to shine this season, having been featured in the starting lineup only twice in the Bundesliga. The 22-year-old striker netted 16 goals in the previous campaign with Hoffenheim, where he averaged just below three shots per game and 0.45 xG (expected goals) per 90 minutes.
Since he joined Borussia, his statistics have significantly declined, with only three shots on goal and an overall xG of just 0.53 compared to last year. However, his physicality and in-game intelligence, akin to players like Thomas Müller, make him a strong candidate to break his goal-scoring drought this weekend.
On Saturday, Dortmund welcome RB Leipzig, who currently boast the best defence in the Bundesliga, having conceded just three goals.
However, Leipzig's statistics show a big overperformance (+8.80) relative to their expected goals against (xGA), suggesting vulnerabilities that Dortmund and Beier could exploit.
The historical head-to-head record between these two sides suggests a match likely to be filled with goals.
Their meetings boast an average of 3.5 goals per game, and none have ended in a scoreless draw. This trend suggests an open contest where clinical strikers like Beier might flourish.
Resilient Dutch to prove doubters wrong
Thijs Dallinga's adjustment to Serie A has been slower than anticipated. The former Toulouse player, who scored 19 goals and provided five assists last season across Ligue 1, the Coupe de France, and the Europa League, has yet to replicate that form in Italy.
With over 300 minutes and no goals or assists to his name in Serie A and the Champions League, his initial impact has been minimal.
It is important to mention that Dallinga faced an early-season physical setback and is still adjusting to a different league and team dynamics.
Statistics indicate Bologna are currently struggling to capitalise on the opportunities they create. The team rank 12th in Serie A for shots with 120, but are one of the league's most wasteful when it comes to converting chances, having missed nine significant ones.
Dallinga has only taken three shots so far in Serie A, of which only one was on target.
However, given the Dutch striker’s previous track record of scoring in double digits for three consecutive seasons, the potential for a comeback is strong.
The upcoming match against Lecce provides an optimal setting for Dallinga to revive his goal-scoring form. Lecce’s defence has significant vulnerabilities, having faced the second-highest expected goals against (xGA) with 18.49 this season and only managing two clean sheets in ten games. Their goalkeeper, Wladimiro Falcone, is among those facing the most pressure, having made 32 saves, which is the fourth-highest in Serie A.
Moreover, it’s crucial to acknowledge Dallinga’s psychological resilience. Last season, it took him seven games to score his opening goal, after which his performances improved steadily.