There has been an average of 4.74 cards per game heading into Matchday Five, a 0.62 increase on the 2022/23 edition of the tournament.
Our expert has delved into Thursday and Friday’s fixtures and crunched the numbers to pick out four matches that should see plenty of cards.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Denmark vs Spain - Over 3.5 Cards | 1.65 |
Switzerland vs Serbia - Over 5.5 Cards | 1.95 |
Portugal vs Poland - Over 4.5 Cards | 1.77 |
Greece vs England - Over 4.5 Cards | 1.62 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Ones to Watch
Denmark vs Spain
Spain's blend of technical ability and blistering pace make them a formidable opponent for any team, and it has also meant their matches have been card-friendly. Their UEFA Nations League outings have seen an average of 6.75 cards per game, the fourth most in the competition.
Three of Denmark’s four Nations League games have seen four cards or more, with those matches averaging 6.25 cards. In Denmark's last two home games, referees have issued 5 cards in one match and 11 in the other. There were five cards when they lost in Spain last month.
Switzerland vs Serbia
Switzerland need a win against Serbia to have any hope of remaining in League A of the Nations League, so we expect a feisty affair. Murat Yakin's team has accumulated 23 yellow cards and two red cards in this competition, averaging 6.25 cards per game.
The bookmakers have set the line at over 5.5 cards, which is enticing since Serbia's matches have also averaged 6.25 cards per game. They received four yellows and a red as they were beaten in their last game on the road.
Portugal vs Poland
Portugal matches aren’t particularly card-friendly. Their competitive matches under Roberto Martinez have seen an average of 3.68 per game. This increases to four per game in this edition of the Nations League, but the numbers in head-to-heads with Poland show more promise. There have been five cards or more in the four meetings between these sides since the start of 2016.
Poland’s matches in the 2024/25 Nations League have seen five cards per game on average. Over 4.5 cards have landed in their last three outings, with their most recent away game seeing six cards handed out.
Greece vs England
Incredibly, Greece are one of just two sides to boast a 100% record after four matches. If they manage to avoid defeat against England, they'll be in prime position to top their group, potentially leading to a fiercely contested match. Three of Greece’s four Nations League matches have seen at least five cards.
England matches in this tournament have seen an average of just 3.25 cards per game. However, there were six cards when they were beaten by the Greeks at Wembley last month.