They hammered Venezia 4-0 at the weekend, and rank third in expected goal difference in Italy’s top flight.
With the Champions League kicking off, is this a good time to back Milan in outright betting markets?
- Atalanta are the only team to generate more expected goals in Serie A.
- Milan are third in expected goal difference in Serie A.
- The Rossoneri will be heavy favourites in five of their eight Champions League matches.
Milan Outright Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Serie A winner | 13.00 |
To win Coppa Italia | 7.00 |
Top eight Champions League finish | 3.50 |
Champions League winner | 51.00 |
Top Serie A team in CL | 4.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Milan are better than early season results indicate
It’s a small sample just four matches into the season, but Milan’s 4-0 win over Venezia should see them kick-start their campaign. They could have easily beaten Parma, Lazio, and Torino in their opening three matches. Taking just two points intensified the pressure.
The response against Venezia is what the Rossoneri supporters hoped for. Four goals in the first half an hour, including two goal contributions from Christian Pulisic, allowed Milan to cruise to the most comfortable of victories at the San Siro.
There was little to choose between Milan, Napoli, Juventus, and Atalanta’s expected metrics last season. Milan were the ones who ultimately finished a distant second to Inter. How close the teams were indicates Milan were not just riding some unsustainable hot streak in front of goal or getting lucky with opponents missing chances.
Alvaro Morata, Tammy Abraham, Youssouf Fofana, and Strahinja Pavlović represent an impressive transfer window. This team isn’t packed with massive names, but there’s plenty of talent there for Milan to be a competitive team in Italy and continental competition this season. Rafael Leao, Morata, Abraham, Pulisic, and Noah Okafor are an exciting quintet of attacking options.
When is the time to back the Rossoneri?
Milan are 13.00 to win Serie A – they are just four points off the top of the league despite their woeful start to the season. Having finished in the top two in three of the last four seasons, an each-way wager in this market is surely of interest.
The one reason to hold off is the upcoming Milan derby. Inter have won the last six derbies. Another defeat would see Milan’s price in Serie A markets lengthen further, and the same goes for their Champions League odds if they lose to Liverpool on matchday one. It might have to get worse before it gets better for the Rossoneri.
The 3.50 price on Milan to finish in the top eight in the Champions League already looks appealing. Away matches to Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid are obviously very challenging, but the draw was ultimately pretty kind. They host Club Bruges on matchday three before visiting Real Madrid on matchday four.
The final four matches are all extremely winnable. Paulo Fonseca’s side face Slovan Bratislava, Red Star Belgrade, Girona, and Dinamo Zagreb.
Milan being the top Serie A team in the Champions League is well worth backing at 4.00 – we would want to take this before they face Liverpool, as the price will undoubtedly shorten if Fonseca’s team beat the Reds.
Patience might pay off if Milan lose to Inter in their next Serie A match, but we certainly like the odds on the Rossoneri’s outright markets after their breakthrough performance at the weekend.