The 2024-25 season is a massive opportunity for the Uruguayan as Liverpool plan their post-Mo Salah future.
- Darwin Nunez had the second-most non-penalty expected goals per 90 in the Premier League last season
- Of players to play over 500 league minutes, Nunez had the most shots per 90
- Arne Slot’s Feyenoord generated 93.1 expected goals in Eredivisie last season
| Premier League Outright Market | Liverpool Odds |
|---|---|
| Darwin Nunez to win the Golden Boot | 15.00 |
| Darwin Nunez to have the most assists | 67.00 |
Expected Goals Metrics Remain Impressive For Nunez
Darwin Nunez was second in non-penalty goals per 90 last season, but there were 18 players with more goals in the Premier League. Nunez was 20th in goals per 90, behind Jarrod Bowen, Rodrigo Muniz, and Dominic Solanke.
Since arriving in the Premier League, Nunez has consistently underachieved his expected metrics. He has just 20 goals from 27.8 expected goals after scoring 32 goals on 28.3 expected goals in two seasons with Benfica.
The likelihood is Nunez is probably somewhere between his red-hot last season in Portugal and his subpar Premier League finishing. He’s still racking up impressive shot totals – no player with over 500 minutes had more shots per 90 in 2023-24.
Having just turned 25, there is time for the Uruguayan to develop. Perhaps that means a cooler head in front of goal or maybe it’s a case of regaining his form from his second season in Lisbon.
Value For Golden Boot at 15.00
The 2024-25 season is a major opportunity for Nunez. It will likely be Mohamed Salah’s last with Liverpool. Even in Jurgen Klopp’s high-powered attacks, Diogo Jota, Cody Gakpo, and Luis Diaz have been unable to match Nunez’s underlying metrics.
There is some uncertainty surrounding Liverpool with Arne Slot replacing Klopp, but Slot’s Feyenoord were a potent attacking team last season, registering over 93 expected goals in 34 Eredivisie matches. Santiago Gimenez scored 23 goals leading the line for The Club on the Meuse – could Nunez get to a similar tally in 2024-25?
A lack of penalties will count against Nunez in the Golden Boot race, but his expected goal metrics and Slot’s attack-first style of football suggest he could be in for a productive campaign. Erling Haaland is obviously the heavy favourite, but if he suffers an injury or two, Nunez will have a real chance.
We think Nunez is great value at this price, particularly if you back him each-way. The chances will be there for him in Slot’s team, and there is a lack of strong candidates for the Golden Boot outside of Haaland and Salah.