Despite Derby Win Amorim’s United Are Still A Risky Bet For Top-6 Finish

Despite trailing as late as the 88th minute, the ‘Red Devils’ snatched victory from City, hinting at the beginning of what could be a successful era under Ruben Amorim. Yet, overall performance in his initial seven matches, and the team’s trajectory, reveal various betting angles.

Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Players’ rotations and set-piece goals

Despite a lackluster start—gathering just seven points from five games—Amorim’s strategic adjustments convey a willingness to shake things up.

One standout feature of Amorim's management is his heavy reliance on squad rotation. Averaging 3.8 changes per match, his approach indicates a strategy aimed at maximizing flexibility and adaptability among his players.

Amad Diallo, for instance, has seen his involvement almost doubled in the past month, a critical factor for those exploring individual player performance markets.

Likewise, when betting on goals and assists, one should take into account Bruno Fernandes' recent resurgence—scoring seven goals in the last seven games—thanks to his expanded role following the managerial change.

With Sunday’s victory in the derby, Amorim joins a very exclusive club: only one other manager has ever beaten the reigning Premier League champions with two different teams in a single campaign. That was Alan Pardew, who overcame Manchester City with both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace in the 2014-15 season.

However, the Portuguese manager’s approach has not been without its issues. United has displayed persistent issues in defending set-pieces, as evidenced by a striking percentage of goals conceded from corners (42%). This defensive frailty is a critical consideration for those betting on a clean sheet or the goals market.

A negative record looming

According to our in-house model, Manchester United is projected to end the season with 57.1 points, finishing in 8th position, which would be three points fewer than last season.

This implies that Manchester United are set to record their lowest points total in a Premier League season. The club's odds of finishing within the top six stand at 27.4%.

Betting at average odds of 3.00, which implies a probability of 33%, should be approached with caution, as Manchester United might not represent substantial value at this moment.

Based on our projections, Manchester United should average 1.59 points per game until the end of the season, a slight improvement on the current average of 1.37 points per game.

As United approaches fixtures against Newcastle and Bournemouth, there lies a strategic opportunity for bettors.

Although both clubs are currently ahead of Manchester United in the table, our projections suggest that it may be wise to back United to achieve positive results.

Additionally, United are projected to finish level with the ‘Magpies’ and above the team from the South Coast in the table.

However, January transfer market activities could significantly alter the squad dynamics and subsequent betting landscapes. Bettors should stay vigilant about new signings that could enhance United's prospects this season.