Liverpool have managed to secure victories in both fixtures against Everton only twice in the past decade, achieving this feat in the 2016/17 and 2021/22 seasons.
The most recent encounter, where Everton emerged victorious with a 2-0 win, serves as a reminder that form often takes a backseat in this fiercely contested derby.
With Liverpool heavily favored at odds of 1.44, what is the best approach for betting on the Merseyside derby?
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Quick Turnarounds and Tentative Openings
The two clubs are situated in the North of the city, with only Stanley Park separating Anfield and Goodison Park. With the development of Everton's new stadium set to be ready in 2025/26, the city of Liverpool will host its last-ever Merseyside derby at Everton's Goodison Park.
This is the 246th meeting across all competitions, with Liverpool FC poised for a century of wins as they enter Saturday's contest on 99 victories.
Although often a hotly-contested and tight affair, Liverpool have lost just two of their last 27 Premier League games against Everton (W12/D13), winning four of the previous six. Nine of the last 13 Premier League head-to-heads between the pair at Goodison Park have resulted in a tie. In that period, the Merseyside derby has overseen five 0-0 scorelines.
Given the significance of this fixture and its storied past, along with Everton's recent trend of low-scoring games, should we expect a lackluster match with limited goals?
Before the 4-0 defeat to Manchester United, where the underlying data suggested it was a different kind of game (1.07xG vs 0.58xG), Everton had witnessed six consecutive Premier League matches fall under 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.30 for the upcoming fixture hosted at 12:30 (UK) in the midday TV slot. That's a quick turnaround from the midweek matches in a congested fixture schedule.
This will mark Liverpool's fifth match in just 14 days, with an upcoming Champions League clash against Girona in Spain scheduled for Tuesday at 17:45.If there's ever a time for Liverpool to appear slightly off their game, it's in the early kick-off slot on Saturday against their fiercest crosstown rivals.
Each of the previous five matches have seen fewer than three goals, with eight of the last ten also resulting in under 2.5 goals. Across the previous ten Merseyside derbies, there has been an average of 2.0 goals per90. When you consider it was Jurgen Klopp's heavy metal football emanating from the dugout in recent years, perhaps Arne Slot's showings will be just as low-scoring.
Arne Slot's Liverpool: A More Controlled Approach
Over in the red faction of Merseyside, Arne Slot has just guided his team to two comfortable victories - the first against the reigning European champions, Real Madrid, and the second versus Manchester City, champions of England.
The Dutchman has a wealth of attacking options capable of making a significant impact. In midfield, Alexis MacAllister, Ryan Gravenberch, Dominik Szoboszlai, and Curtis Jones provide a balanced mix of players. They are eager to receive the ball, skillfully navigate tight spaces, and approach the game with determination, ready to engage in and win their battles in the center of the pitch.
Virgil van Dijk has provided the most stable of foundations to build from the back, similar to the breadth of Jurgen Klopp’s reign. Ibrahim Konate is set for a period out of action, but Joe Gomez stepped in flawlessly when Pep's faltering powerhouse arrived on Merseyside.
Facing Everton away, just a short journey across the park, presents an entirely different challenge. There will be no empty seats. The stadium feels right next to the touchline, ready to pounce on every mistake and mistimed pass.
If Liverpool were to wrestle three points away from this stubborn Toffees side, the likes of Mohamed Salah would need to perform. The Egyptian is one of only three current players from either club with multiple derby goals to their name: Mohamed Salah (7), Michael Keane (2), and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (2).
Despite Liverpool sitting at the top of the table, with Mohamed Salah plundering 11 goals in just 13 outings in the Premier League, we are still yet to see them blow an opponent away. We witnessed that regularly under Jurgen Klopp: a 4-2 here, a 5-3 there.
However, Arne Slot's style is more restrained and controlled. Under their new manager, Liverpool have not scored more than three goals in a Premier League match, surpassing the 3.5-goal mark in only one of thirteen games: a 2-3 victory against Southampton.
A positive away victory should be on the cards, going on recent performances and form. However, as noted earlier, this is a match where caution is advised when considering the 1x2 betting market.
Regardless, at 1.44, Liverpool’s price is one to avoid. That leads us back to an ‘Under’ goals angle. If the early Saturday kick-off proves to be cautious and tight in the first half, with both teams focused on not losing, it could be enough to secure an Under 2.5 goals bet at odds of 2.30. The Under 3.0 Asian line is also a strong consideration for any ‘Unders’-backers, with four goals needed for a loss at 1.81.