New Value Bet Emerges in La Liga Relegation Odds

Last season’s La Liga 2 champions, Leganes, fell into the La Liga relegation zone with just 9 games of the season remaining after 1 win in 9 games.

Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

The Story of Leganes’ Roller-Coaster Season

Leganes stormed back into La Liga for the 2024/25 season after winning La Liga 2. They started the new campaign well as they went unbeaten in their first three games.

By the festive season, Leganes had racked up four league wins and suffered just eight defeats in their 18 games.

Leganes’ home form has been their saviour so far, with five of their six La Liga wins coming at Estadio Municipal Butarque.

Around the New Year, Leganes looked like they were growing in confidence. They landed a shock away win at Barcelona before a gritty 1-0 home victory over another title contender in Atletico Madrid.

However, since the end of January, Leganes have suffered six defeats in eight games. They’ve scored just nine goals in eight games, and they’ve conceded a worrying 17 in that period.

It’s not like they have a lengthy injury or suspension list to contend with. However, the issue is more likely to be a long, gruelling La Liga season catching up with them. The gulf in class between La Liga and La Liga 2 continues to widen, if not quite at the same speed as the Premier League and the EFL Championship.

However, Leganes’ run-in makes us question whether they should be considered odds-on third favourites for relegation. That’s because they face the current bottom two in their penultimate games of the season.

Their schedule also includes games against struggling Osasuna and Espanyol, who have won just once away all season.

Why Alaves Remain the Most Likely to be Relegated

While Leganes are given a 52.63% chance of relegation, the betting markets suggest Alaves only have a 42.19% chance of the drop.

Their probabilities should be significantly closer. Alaves averaged just 0.75 points per game from their last eight games. While that’s slightly better than Leganes, their next six La Liga games look particularly tough.

They travel to Girona, before clashes with Real Madrid, Sevilla, Real Sociedad, Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao. Alaves will be comfortable underdogs in all six of those contests.

That leaves a lot of pressure on Alaves’ final three games of the campaign. They host Valencia and Osasuna, who both have dreadful away records. There’s also a trip to bottom club Real Valladolid, who are certain to be relegated by then.

Alaves have won just once in their last nine fixtures, just like Leganes. Scoring goals has been a big issue for Babazorros too, with eight goals in those previous nine games.

Espanyol Shouldn’t Be Overlooked Either

Espanyol sit two places and just two points above Leganes right now, albeit with a game in-hand. Their form has improved a lot since the turn of the New Year, and they have lost just twice in 2025.

They also defeated Real Madrid and recently drew with Atletico Madrid. However, their remaining fixtures until May are equally challenging.

In fact, they are only likely to be the pre-game favourites in two of their remaining ten games. One of those is on the final day of the season at home to Las Palmas.

Espanyol’s away form has been dreadful. They’ve picked up just five points from a possible 39 on their travels this season.

The most concerning aspect for the Periquitos is that six of their remaining ten games are away from the RCDE Stadium. Four of their next five are on the road.

The betting markets give Espanyol a relegation probability of just over 30%. However, if their dreadful away form continues between now and 27th April, it’s hard to see them picking up more than three points in that period.

To sum up, backing Alaves for relegation seems a better play than Leganes. Alternatively, you could take a chance on Espanyol now and consider cashing out after their run of four away games in five. If their away form continues to be woeful, it’s likely their odds will drop.