Early Value in the Premier League’s Festive Schedule: Goals, Goals and More Goals

Luckily for us bettors, the bookmakers have priced every game until December 26th. 

Considering the busy festive fixture list, the teams in and out of form, the suspect defences and firing attacks, we bettors can make plenty of early selections to get ahead of the market.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Capable Attacks and Defences You Can’t Trust

After watching the Monday Night Football broadcast, it became clear that both West Ham and Wolves are unreliable in defence, although they managed to showcase impressive attacking plays at times. Both sides registered 19 shots each. 

On a different day, the West Ham vs Wolves match might not have ended 2-1. The expected goals (xG) stats were 0.97 for West Ham and 1.47 for Wolves, but we believe these numbers don't capture the whole picture.

Wolves had two penalty appeals turned down, which could have turned out differently under a different ref and VAR outfit. Joao Gomes really ought to have done better with his 0.20 xG attempt from six yards out with the goal gaping. Similarly, Mavropanos's unpressured collapse six yards out, resulting in a shot that soared into Row Z (0.10 xG), certainly raises questions.

Wolves will face Ipswich at home next, followed by an away match against Leicester on December 22nd. For West Ham, it’s Bournemouth away following their Wolves outing for another Monday Night Football game on December 16th.

In Bournemouth and Leicester, we’ve got two Premier League outfits proving capable in front of goal. However, both teams’ seasons combined have seen just three clean sheets in 30 fixtures. 

If you pair two capable attacks with two more efficient frontlines in the Bournemouth vs West Ham and Wolves vs Leicester matches, and consider that all four teams combined have kept only seven clean sheets in 60 matches, it seems both games are destined for goals.

All four teams have a top-heavy feel, with Evanilson, Mohammed Kudus, Jarrod Bowen, Matheus Cunha, and Jamie Vardy ageing like fine wine. Their defenses are unreliable, but you can certainly count on their forwards.

This is a view that most people will likely hold, suggesting that the current prices might not be available by the time kick-off comes around. BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals can be taken at 1.90 in Leicester vs Wolves, whilst the 1.83 for the same market in Bournemouth vs West Ham presents another shrewd way into the game.

Backing the League's Second-Best Attack: A Smart Bet

Bournemouth features again for our third and final bet. Only Chelsea (32.6xG) has recorded a higher xG total than Bournemouth’s 30.92xG. The Cherries have created more high-quality shooting opportunities than some of the best teams in the world after 15 games.

Andoni Iraola’s side sits in 8th in the table. However, despite posting head-turning Expected Goals totals, Bournemouth is the team that has posted the biggest underperformance of the xG data. The -7.92 underperformance, resulting from scoring 23 goals from an expected 30.92, suggests that the South Coast team has been both unlucky and wasteful

If the data surrounding Bournemouth regresses to the mean sometime soon, we should start seeing more goals and, ultimately, more points on the board. The other standout selection over the next fortnight comes in their trip to Old Trafford in the same BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals market (1.90).

It’s a venue where Bournemouth won 0-3 last season under their Spanish coach. There will be no apprehension about heading to Manchester for a match that Manchester United fans anticipate winning. Ruben Amorim will set up the hosts to take all three points and should find the scoresheet. However, Bournemouth's pressing and the turnovers they force from a revamped United setup might tell a different story.

Five out of six of Bournemouth’s recent Premier League outings have landed BTTS and Over 2.5 goals. The one match that fell short was the 1-0 against Spurs: 3.71xG vs 0.87xG.