Fiorentina vs Inter Milan Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Fiorentina vs Inter Milan
- Inter Milan Or Draw And Under 3.5 Goals with odds of @1.87 on BetWinner, equating to a 53% chance of the visitors not losing and no more than four goals being scored.
- Fiorentina Goal Band: 1-2 with odds of @1.70 on BetWinner, indicating a 61% chance of the hosts scoring once or twice.
- Inter First Goalscorer: Marcus Thuram with odds of @4.30 on BetWinner, representing a 24% chance for the French striker to score Inter’s first goal.
Fiorentina and Inter Milan should be expected to draw 1-1.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Serie A is experiencing one of its most competitive seasons in the past decade, with six teams at the top of the table separated by only four points.
Therefore, Sunday’s clash at the ‘Stadio Artemio Franchi’ is to be considered a crucial juncture of a fascinating campaign, with ‘La Viola’ hoping to achieve their first home win against the Nerazurri since 2017.
The hosts, under the new management of Raffaele Palladino, have surprised many, thanks to the third best defense in the league and a prolific attack, pushing them closer than ever to a Champions League spot.
Simone Inzaghi's Inter Milan boast a commanding 5-0 victory over Hellas Verona and a crucial 1-0 win over RB Leipzig in the Champions League, as they are the only side yet to concede a goal in Europe’s top competition.
Probable Lineups for Fiorentina vs Inter Milan
The probable lineup for Fiorentina in the "system of play."
De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Ranieri, Gosens; Cataldi, Bove; Colpani, Beltran, Sottil; Kean.
The probable lineup for Inter Milan in the "system of play."
Sommer; Bisseck, De Vrij, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Lautaro, Thuram.
Palladino’s transformation start from the back
Under Raffaele Palladino, Fiorentina have undergone a transformation starting from their defensive set up.
Their recent string of results, including a hard-fought 2-0 victory over Como, marks their seventh consecutive victory in all competitions.
This stretch has seen the team achieve a club-record fourth clean sheet away from home, boosting their confidence as they head into this crucial match.
Since match day five, Fiorentina have been dominant, collecting what would be a league-leading 25 points during this period, five more than their upcoming opponents.
The team has particularly enhanced its defensive phase, making significant strides in expected goals against (xGA), rising from the 28th to the 7th best defense among Europe's top five leagues.
This improvement marks a distinct departure from the methods of Vincenzo Italiano, when ‘La Viola’ were known for their possession-based approach (they were 16th in Europe for touches in the final third) but often left themselves vulnerable at the back.
Under Palladino, Fiorentina has mastered deeper defensive structures and has become adept at exploiting space through incisive counter-attacks.
This shift in strategy has propelled them to second place in Italy for xG overperformance (3.16) and fifth among Europe’s top leagues.
- Fiorentina vs Inter Milan Bet 1: Inter Milan Or Draw And Under 3.5 Goals @1.87 with BetWinner
Nerazzurri are getting back into shape
On the other hand, Inter Milan, the reigning champions, are regaining their form.
Despite a sloppy start to the season, which saw them ranked as Serie A’s seventh best defense in xGA, allowing six goals in the last 15 minutes of matches, the Nerazzurri have turned a corner.
After a memorable 4-4 draw with Juventus in late October, Simone Inzaghi's side has recorded five clean sheets in their last six matches, including victories over Empoli, Venezia, and Verona domestically, and Arsenal and Leipzig in European competition.
The centre-back pair of Stefan de Vrij and Alessandro Bastoni has been crucial in stabilizing Inter's defense, orchestrating plays from deep.
Meanwhile, Yann Sommer has rediscovered the form that helped him keep 19 league clean sheets last season, overcoming early-season jitters to be a reliable presence in goal.
Nevertheless, Inter’s trip to Florence presents unique challenges, particularly due to injuries to key defenders Benjamin Pavard and Francesco Acerbi.
Inzaghi is expected to rotate his lineup, introducing Yann-Aurel Bisseck and Matteo Darmian from the start, alongside Henrikh Mkhitaryan, who famously netted a stoppage-time winner against Fiorentina in their October 2023 meeting.
That encounter was the only one since September 2020 when the odds of a Nerazzurri victory have been as high as they are now.
The historic head to head for these Fiorentina vs Inter Milan predictions say that the visitors have dominated this fixture, losing only once in their last 17 meetings.
However, this season, they have struggled to secure victories in high-stakes domestic matches following midweek Champions League fixtures, failing to win against AC Milan, Juventus, and Napoli.
- Fiorentina vs Inter Milan Bet 2: Fiorentina Goal Band: 1-2 @1.70 with BetWinner
Thuram and Kean both in hot form
Switching focus to attack for our Fiorentina vs Inter Milan predictions, both teams boast players in prolific form.
Inter, who have only failed to score once since last season, depend on the partnership between Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram.
The French forward has already scored nine Serie A goals this season, matching his goal tally for the previous season by January.
Intriguingly, Thuram tends to score in bursts, having only netted in four games this campaign, which include three braces and a hat-trick against Torino.
His clinical nature is evidenced by a conversion rate of 42% on shots on target, surpassed only by Mateo Retegui, Valentin Castellanos, and Fiorentina’s own Moise Kean.
Kean, acquired from Juventus for €13 million, has been a revelation this season. With 10 goals across all competitions, his performances align perfectly with his expected goals (xG) metric. Kean averages 4.2 shots per game, with 1.71 on target, representing the most prolific numbers of his career thus far.
- Fiorentina vs Inter Milan Bet 3: Inter First Goalscorer: Marcus Thuram @4.30 with BetWinner