Following consecutive promotions, the Premier League has proven to be a tough challenge for the Tractor Boys. After 15 league games, Ipswich have just one win and sit four points adrift of safety.
Their 14 goals scored is the joint-second lowest goals scored total in the division, with bottom club Southampton (11) currently the only team to score fewer goals than Ipswich. Kieran McKenna’s system at Portman Road relies heavily on attack-minded left back Leif Davis. The data suggests he remains as integral to Town’s hopes this year as he has been in the last two seasons.
Premier League Outright Market | Ipswich Town Odds |
|---|---|
To Be Relegated | 1.40 |
Top Promoted Club | 1.90 |
Odds courtesy of BetWinner. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Leif Davis Remains Ipswich’s Creator-in-Chief
During Ipswich Town’s automatic promotion-winning Championship season in 2023/24, Leif Davis registered a staggering 14 assists from left back.
Ipswich play a somewhat lopsided defensive shape, whereby Davis is given licence to roam forward as an attacking wing back. Meanwhile, the other three defenders close in to form a compact defensive line.
Despite the step up to the Premier League, Davis remains integral to Town’s build-up play. He’s created almost a third (31.3%) of Ipswich’s key passes so far this season. This figure is only bettered by one player in Europe’s top five leagues, Junya Ito of Ligue 1 side Reims (33.9%).
With Ipswich so reliant on Davis for chance creation and moving the ball into dangerous areas of the pitch, keeping him fit will be key to help Ipswich avoid relegation.
The Tractor Boys are currently second favourites for the drop, with their relegation odds crashing from 1.70 to 1.40 after recent back-to-back home defeats to Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
Will the Tractor Boys' Goal Drought Prove Costly?
Davis has worked hard to set up and supply players like Liam Delap and Sammie Szmodics in crucial areas on the field. It’s not gone unnoticed by the WhoScored statisticians either. Davis is currently the joint-second highest-rated player with 6.81, behind top performer Cameron Burgess (6.83).
Take Davis out of the equation and it paints a somewhat bleak picture for Blues boss, Kieran McKenna. Only three players have averaged over 0.20 xG per 90 minutes this season. Liam Delap is top the list with 0.48 xG per 90, suggesting he’s capable of scoring every other game. George Hirst has hit the same figure, albeit with substantially less minutes.
Sammie Szmodics has also generated an xG per 90 of 0.38, but everyone below him is generally creating one goal scoring chance every five games or worse.
With Hirst sidelined by injury until the New Year, McKenna looks almost certain to dip into the transfer market to try and improve Town’s goal threat. The worry is that it’ll be too little, too late by January.
With a tricky period of fixtures over the festive season, Ipswich could be cut even further adrift. When all is said and done, their current 1.40 odds for relegation feel like fair value right now.