But why is Thuram, a player whose career’s best tally is 16 goals per season, a smart bet to be crowned Capocannoniere?
Let's dive into the crucial stats that position him as a strong contender.
Lazio vs Inter Milan | Odds |
|---|---|
Marcus Thuram: To Score Anytime |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Crafting a goalscoring machine
The man behind Thuram’s transformation, Inter Milan boss Simone Inzaghi, has a storied past in shaping centre-forwards into top goalscorers.
Inzaghi’s first prominent success was Cristiano Lombardi, a teenager turned prolific scorer under his guidance with Lazio’s youth team in 2011. Fast forward to today, and Inzaghi has solidified his reputation by helping players like Ciro Immobile and Lautaro Martinez capitalise on scoring opportunities.
Immobile clinched the European Golden Shoe in 2020 thanks to 36 goals, while Lautaro broke personal records with 24 goals last season.
Thuram’s evolution under Inzaghi is palpable. Initially brought into Inter for his flair and versatility, he is being honed into a traditional number 9.
Last Friday his contribution against Parma was a testament to this, marking his first goal from a set-piece routine, previously used by Inzaghi to great effect with Immobile.
Thuram’s Impressive Scoring Stats
With 10 goals in 14 league appearances, Thuram has established himself as the main figure in Inter’s attack.
In his debut season, Thuram quickly integrated into Italy’s competitive landscape, ending with an impressive tally of 13 goals and 7 assists.
This season, however, he has already reached double figures nine matchdays earlier than he did in 2023/2024, signaling an upward trajectory in his scoring potential.
Understanding the xG dynamics
While expected goals (xG) data typically serve as a predictive measure for potential scoring, Thuram presents a unique case.
This season, he has 10 goals against an xG of 7.94, showcasing his ability to convert difficult scoring chances.
Although historically not a player who massively outperforms xG, his current form suggests the ability to defy xG rules further, enhancing his credentials as Serie A top scorer.
Competition for Atalanta’s duo
When comparing Thuram’s chances with those of other top strikers, such as Atalanta’s Mateo Retegui (12 goals) and Ademola Lookman (8 goals), an interesting picture emerges.
Like the Frenchman, both Retegui and Lookman are outperforming their respective xG figures, but Thuram’s scoring ratio at, approximately, 29.5% of Inter’s total goals grants him an edge, especially given the Nerazzurri projected goal tally.
Additionally, our projections model estimates Inter scoring 79 goals this season, 10 fewer than last campaign, which would position Thuram to potentially find the back of the net 23 times — almost matching Lautaro Martinez’s numbers from last year.
Considering historical trends, where the Capocannoniere’s tally has dropped since Ronaldo’s 29-goal season in 2020-2021, Thuram stands well within striking distance of claiming the top spot.
The Betting value
From a betting perspective, Inter’s number 9 offers a great value.
According to our projections tool, Atalanta are expected to score 78 goals by the end of the season. This suggests that if Retegui and Lookman continue to share goals at the same rate, there could be a head-to-head finish between Retegui and Thuram.
Retegui, based on our calculations, is anticipated to score an additional 12 goals by the season's end, bringing his total to 24.
However, in this scenario, the odds for Thuram to be the league’s top goalscorer, at 5.00 with an implied probability of 20%, are significantly better than those for Retegui, whose odds are 2.37 and whose probability seems overestimated at 42.2%.
Lazio, Inter's upcoming opponent, is a team Thuram particularly enjoys playing against, having scored twice in their last three encounters.