Are the Eagles worth backing for another top-half finish?
- Crystal Palace are 6th in the Premier League for expected points since hiring Oliver Glasner
- The Eagles finished 10th in the Premier League in 2023-24
- Palace took 19 of the last 21 points available in the Premier League
Odds courtesy of 1xBet Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Palace Heading in the Right Direction
Crystal Palace’s 2.37 price for a top-half finish is partly down to the departure of Michael Olise and speculation about the futures of Marc Guehi and Eberechi Eze.
Olise swapped Bromley for Bavaria after completing his summer move to Bayern Munich. He is a big loss, but the departures of both Guehi and Eze - arguably Palace’s two best players last season - would be a hammer blow to Glasner’s plans for next season.
The progress made under Glasner was remarkable. The Eagles were 17th in expected points before the German took over at Selhurst Park in February. After his appointment, they rose to 6th in the expected points table. Only the league’s top three teams conceded fewer expected goals over that period.
If Guehi leaves, Palace have 21-year-old Morocco international Chadi Riad ready to slot in at centre-back. Daniel Munoz, a marauding right-back, arrived in January and posted excellent numbers in attack and defence, too.
Daichi Kamada was a brilliant signing on a free to bolster Glasner’s midfield options. Emile Smith Rowe and Antonio Nusa are targets to make up for Olise’s departure.
Strong Core at Selhurst Park
Palace are not resting on their laurels after finishing 10th. Despite losing Olise, the club has had an injection of ambition after stagnating under Roy Hodgson. If Guehi and Eze stay, there is an impressive core to build around with Adam Wharton, Tyrick Mitchell, and the in-form Jean-Philippe Mateta.
The underlying metrics were phenomenal under Glasner, even if they made a habit of overachieving their expected goals. Mateta was a revelation, and the defence was rock-solid. There is a platform to build on.
Nusa ranks in the 99th percentile in expected carries and in the 89th percentile for shots per 90. Smith Rowe, who is still only 23 years old, has plenty of potential. Eddie Nketiah remains a target – he’s a proven finisher at Premier League level and could take the pressure off Mateta.
Even with Glasner taking charge in mid-February, Palace snuck into the top half last season. There is plenty of competition in mid-table, but none of Palace’s rivals finished the 2023-24 in such great form. They are exceptional value for a top-half finish at 2.37, particularly if they manage to make a couple of shrewd signings without losing Eze and Guehi.