The Carabao Cup is about to undergo a historic transformation, bringing an unprecedented level of transparency and drama to the semi-final clashes.
| EFL Cup Semi-finals | Odds |
|---|---|
Arsenal vs Newcastle: Under 2.5 Goals | |
Tottenham vs Liverpool: 1X + MultiGoal 2-5 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Recent controversies have shown VAR is needed
The groundbreaking initiative will make its debut in next week’s semi-finals between Arsenal and Newcastle, and Liverpool and Tottenham.
This change is likely to alter the dynamics of the semi-final games, particularly because some teams have been known to thrive or struggle due to VAR interventions.
Recently the absence of VAR in Carabao Cup games has been a point of contention. Arsenal controversially gained an advantage over Crystal Palace in the quarter-finals this season, as the absence of VAR allowed a goal to stand despite TV replays showing offside evidence.
Last season, former Liverpool manager, Jürgen Klopp, questioned why VAR was not in operation during Liverpool’s 3-2 defeat to Manchester City in the Carabao Cup fourth round. Klopp voiced his frustration over the lack of technology after several offside decisions favored City and Liverpool's late penalty appeal was dismissed.
Fewer goals, but more penalty betting opportunities
Beyond the fairness and sporting integrity, the introduction of VAR could significantly affect betting strategies and the perceived odds of victory for the semi-finalists.
The average number of goals per game this season in the EFL Cup stands at 3.45, with 73% of games producing at least three goals. However, this trend will be reversed in the semi-finals, with traditionally more cautious matches, where VAR might influence the outcome.
Since the introduction of VAR in the 2018-2019 season, eight out of twelve EFL Cup first-leg semi-finals have produced fewer than three goals. This statistic is skewed by Manchester United’s 9-0 thrashing of Burton Albion in January 2019 and Bruno Fernandes' goal in the 89th minute at Nottingham Forest, which sealed United's 3-0 win two seasons ago.
Moreover, historical data from the Premier League shows how VAR decisions can alter outcomes and influence betting markets.
For example, Newcastle has emerged as the Premier League team gaining the most from VAR interventions this season, with a net goal advantage of +3 from favorable decisions.
Arsenal, with a net goal score of -1 this season due to VAR, have seen goals disallowed but have also dodged some unfavorable decisions. Their semi-final clash with Newcastle suggests a potentially tougher outing, as they face a side adept at benefiting from VAR interventions. Arsenal's offside issues—41 instances this season—might become crucial if VAR steps in to disallow marginal goals.
Known for their aggressive play under Arne Slot, Liverpool's proficiency in the opposition box is notable. As one of the teams awarded the most penalties this season (6), they stand to gain from VAR's ability to rectify potential penalty scenarios against a leaky Tottenham defence.
With a net subjective score of +2 this season, Tottenham have also benefitted from several favorable overturns. Their match against the league leaders, however, will test this advantage. Liverpool's consistent ability to create scoring opportunities, particularly in the penalty area, is where VAR could play a decisive role.
Betting markets may see fluctuations in odds reflective of a team's historical relationship with VAR—influencing decisions such as match result, goal scorers, and total goals.
For instance, betting on fewer goals the first semi-final between Arsenal and Newcastle might appeal to some, given the possibility of offside goals being ruled out.
Meanwhile, for Liverpool, the likelihood of VAR awarding penalties might tempt bets on Mohammed Salah (five out of six spot kicks scored this season) or Alexis Mac Allister (who scored twice from the spot in 2023/2024) on the goalscorer market.