Are AC Milan, Serie A’s best attack, a good value bet for the Scudetto?

The arrival of Paulo Fonseca at AC Milan has ushered in an era of tactical and structural transformation. His tenure started under clouds of scepticism, owing to a series of underwhelming performances and the high number of goals conceded.

However, Fonseca has adeptly steered the Rossoneri through difficult times, crafting a resurgent team built on solid strategies and renewed conviction.

While the Rossoneri’s journey isn’t devoid of challenges, the signs point to a compelling narrative of potential success.

Odds courtesy of Betano. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Tactical revamp and a strong team spirit

Fonseca's approach emphasises dynamic attacking football supported by a robust defensive foundation. This dual emphasis has gradually rebuffed initial doubts about his ability to galvanise the squad. Through a mix of tactical rigour and psychological engagement, notably evidenced by his innovative captaincy rotation, Fonseca has fostered an atmosphere of shared responsibility and camaraderie within the team.

This transformation has led to the Rossoneri defeating Inter Milan in the derby, for the first time in over two years, and is pivotal in Milan's pursuit of the Serie A title. Their tactical discipline and newfound unity have moulded them into a more resilient and cohesive unit, which are key attributes for championship contention.

Key Players

The architecture of Milan's success this season heavily relies on the strategic influence of key players particularly Mike Maignan, Youssouf Fofana, and Alvaro Morata.

Maignan has cemented his reputation as one of Europe’s elite goalkeepers. His presence between the posts offers Milan an insurance policy, critical in tight league battles where defensive fortitude is paramount.

Fofana brings balance to Milan's midfield. Initially struggling to adjust post-transfer, his resurgence provides stability and dynamism. Acting as a defensive orchestrator and occasionally contributing to offensive schemes, Fofana’s role is indispensable in linking defence and attack—a valuable trait as Milan eyes the Scudetto.

Finally, Euro 2024 champion Morata has added another dimension to Milan's forward line. Despite not being at peak physical condition, his impactful cameos and strategic off-the-ball movements have revitalised the Rossoneri’s attack. Morata’s ability to attract defenders and create space for teammates is an asset not captured by traditional metrics, but is quintessential in maximising goal-scoring opportunities.

Plenty of talent upfront

Milan's scoring prowess this season (14 goals after six games, one more compared to last season) positions them as a strong contender for the league's highest scorers.

Central to this attacking flurry are Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic. These two have been instrumental, contributing 24 and 27 league goals, respectively, since the prior campaign.

Their offensive output draws favourable comparisons with Serie A's elite, only trailing established names like Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram.

Their consistency and flair in front of goal provide a solid foundation for Milan's ambitions to become Serie A's top-scoring team.

Furthermore, Theo Hernández continues to surge as an offensive force from the back, equaling club legend Paolo Maldini's defensive goal-scoring record. His ability to contribute significantly as an attacking left-back is a testament to Milan's depth and flexibility in generating goals from diverse avenues.

Furthermore, their achievement of scoring three or more goals in consecutive first halves against Venezia and Lecce, a feat not seen since 1958, showcases their ability to control and dominate matches, which is an essential trait when facing diverse opponents.

A very open title race

The current Serie A season stands out not only for Milan’s exploits, but also due to the ebb and flow of competition from traditional powerhouses.

Serie A's first six weeks have produced an unprecedented balance, with the top nine teams separated by just four points, a rare occurrence only seen once since 2000.

After Juventus’ nine years of dominance, no team has retained the title in Italy since 2020—a factor that, combined with the extra pressure of the new Champions League format, makes the outright winner market even more interesting this year.

While Milan’s European outings have reflected moments of vulnerability—conceding multiple goal-scoring opportunities to both Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen—the learning curve presents invaluable insights.

The game against the German champions, despite ending in a setback, illuminated periods of promising growth, hinting at a team capable of elevating performances under pressure.

For bettors, Milan's odds as Serie A champions present an intriguing possibility.

Last season’s runners up currently have four points less in the table compared to a year ago and their path isn't devoid of hurdles.

Still, Fonseca’s drive and strategic impetus foresee Milan's resurgence as plausible.