With Brentford making history by becoming the first team in Premier League history to score in the first minute in three consecutive matches, it's hard to ignore the trend when considering an intriguing bet for this weekend's game against Wolverhampton.
The remarkable feat isn’t just an astronomical coincidence, but a blend of rigorous strategy, execution, and perhaps a sprinkle of luck (as conceded by Brentford manager Thomas Frank himself).
The principles underpinning their success in these kick-off set-pieces—playing forward, playing quickly, and positioning themselves for second balls—have become the cornerstone of Brentford's approach. However, will opposing teams eventually work out The Bees' tactics? Also, which other teams have shown a similar trend across Europe so far?
Goal Scored between 1-15 minutes: Yes | Odds |
|---|---|
Brentford vs Wolverhampton | |
Fiorentina vs AC Milan | |
Stuttgart vs Hoffenheim | |
Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo |
Brentford vs Wolverhampton: Early Goals | Odds |
First 10 minutes: Goals Over 0.5 | |
Goal before 27:00 | |
Fiorentina vs AC Milan: Early Goals | Odds |
First 10 minutes: Goals Over 0.5 | |
Goal before 27:00 | |
Stuttgart vs Hoffenheim: Early Goals | Odds |
First 10 minutes: Goals Over 0.5 | |
Goal before 20:00 | |
Las Palmas vs Celta Vigo: Early Goals | Odds |
First 10 minutes: Goals Over 0.5 | |
Goal before 28:00 |
Odds courtesy of bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Frank’s master plan is working
Brentford’s ability to score within the first minute, as recently displayed against Manchester City, Tottenham, and West Ham, isn't just about capitalising on defensive weaknesses, but it also reflects meticulous planning and flawless execution.
The keen attention to detail and the capacity to 'keep the ball alive' in the opponent's final third from the get-go proves Brentford’s tactical astuteness.
Set-piece coach Keith Andrew deserves considerable credit for refining this strategy, considering last season the West London club only scored four goals in the opening fifteen minutes of matches and 10 goals from free-kicks and corners overall.
In fact, Brentford has crafted a unique kickoff playbook that varies slightly game-to-game, but maintains the core philosophy: immediate pressure and quick positioning for second balls.
Centre-back Kristoffer Ajer’s position joining the attack straight from kick-off showcases Brentford’s flexibility and bold approach.
The statistical and tactical reasons backing a bet on an early goal in this weekend's Brentford match are incredibly robust.
Wolverhampton, Brentford's opponents on Saturday at the Gtech Community Stadium, possess the worst defence in the Premier League, having conceded 16 goals so far.
Additionally, they've proven vulnerable to set-pieces, letting in five goals from these scenarios.
Moreover, Wolves conceded two goals in the opening fifteen minutes of games, making them particularly susceptible to Brentford's early onslaught strategy.
However, the psychological advantage of taking an early lead has always helped Brentford achieve victory. In fact, since the start of last season, Thomas Frank’s side have dropped a league-high 38 points from winning positions in the Premier League, including a joint-high eight so far this term.
Other teams to watch
Brentford isn't alone in exploiting early game vulnerabilities. Across Europe, several teams have shown a knack for quick attacks within the first fifteen minutes of play. Let’s explore how they stand out and why betting on them could be a smart move this weekend.
Italy
In Serie A, Lazio has been involved in goals within the first 15 minutes in five out of their six games, totalling seven early goals (scoring three and conceding four). This shows both their aggressiveness and occasional defensive lapses.
Inter Milan and AC Milan are also known for their quick starts.
AC Milan has scored three early goals, often leveraging set-pieces where they’re among the most productive (four goals) alongside the team they’ll face this weekend, Fiorentina,
With Inter scoring three goals in the early minutes and benefiting from set-pieces, their game against Torino at San Siro, where they’ve never failed to score in the last 22 league games, is a prime fixture to watch for rapid goals.
Germany
In the Bundesliga, Stuttgart has showcased remarkable efficiency in striking early, averaging their first goal at around the 12-minute mark. A significant chunk of their goals, six out of 14, have come from set-pieces, indicating a well-drilled, opportunistic approach.
Werder Bremen has excelled even more, clocking their average first goal within just over six minutes.
Their scoring frequency, consistently early in matches, makes them a formidable prospect for betting on early goals. However, the fact they failed to score against top-tier teams such as Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund warrant caution.
Spain
In La Liga, Rayo Vallecano have scored three early goals.
Additionally, four out of five of Las Palmas’ games have seen goals within the initial 15 minutes, reflecting a trend for fast gameplay. Their home game against Celta Vigo, La Liga’s fourth best attack, looks promising for a goal in the first 15 minutes.
Both Barcelona and Villarreal highlight the importance of set-pieces, each scoring four goals through these tactics. Tanking their high xG values into account, especially in high-stakes encounters, betting on early goals when they play could provide substantial returns.