This high-profile transfer not only changes the dynamics in Serie A, but it can also affect the Parisians’ chances in the Champions League.
Champions League | PSG Odds |
To Reach The Final | |
Winner | |
Coupe de France | PSG Odds |
Winner | |
Serie A | Napoli Odds |
Winner |
Odds courtesy of bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Antonio Conte Might Not Need a Replacement
With Napoli currently top of the Serie A table, the departure of their Georgian winger is quite a concern. Known for his creative flair, Kvara has been integral to Napoli's Scudetto in 2022/2023.
While Antonio Conte has brought a new belief and tactical acumen to the squad, Kvaratskhelia's exit could create a void. Conte's response has been proactive, with Manchester United’s Aleandro Garnacho tipped as a potential replacement.
Despite Garnacho’s potential, his lack of experience in Italy compared to Kvaratskhelia’s might pose challenges, especially as the Argentinian won’t have much time to adapt to the new style of football.
Fortunately, Napoli can count on David Neres as a strong alternative. The former Benfica player has stepped up since November, matching Kvaratskhelia's offensive contributions.
Neres averages a goal or assist almost every game, and his dribblings statistics (24 completed, 53.3% of the total) are way higher than Napoli's number 77 this season (only 27% completed).
Yet, Napoli’s upcoming fixture list is daunting, and the departure of such an important player might unsettle the team.
Currently, Napoli are considered almost certain to finish in the top four with odds of 1.03. Earlier in the season, these odds were markedly higher. For instance, bet365 offered odds of 15.00 in August for Napoli to win the Scudetto with a +15 points handicap.
By the end of September, their odds as "Winner Without Inter Milan" had been reduced to 3.25, which have now dropped to 1.62.
Based on the underlying data, Napoli have earned 8.93 points more than what they deserved, which is the highest positive difference in Europe’s top-five leagues.
Their Scudetto hopes will largely depend on their upcoming games.
Conte’s men will take on Atalanta, Roma, and Lazio - whom they have already lost to twice this season, away from home. They will also host Juventus and Inter Milan.
If Napoli can get through this challenging stretch without a loss before their crucial game against Inter Milan, their odds to clinch the Scudetto will shorten significantly.
A Good Fit for PSG?
Kvaratskhelia’s playing style is characterized by his aggressive approach against defenders and being heavily involved in offensive play. This seems tailored for a team aspiring to fill the void left by Kylian Mbappé's departure to Real Madrid.
Bradley Barcola, who has stepped into Mbappé’s role, has impressed with 10 goals. Yet, Kvaratskhelia could bring an additional spark needed for a European resurgence.
His ability to thrive under pressure is a positive sign, potentially offering the creative outlet and directness PSG have craved in Europe’s elite competition.
Les Parisiens have struggled in the competition this season, having found the net only six times and falling short of their xG (expected goals) by 5.1.
Despite ranking second for attacks with 408 and 12th for shots on target, Luis Enrique's side are sitting outside the Champions League's top 24.
With his Champions League experience at Napoli, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia could be the spark they need, if the Parisians manage to qualify for the play-offs. In fact, according to the UEFA rules, players who sign in January can be registered to play in the knockouts of a European competition, but not match days seven and eight this month.
Kvara has made 17 appearances in the competition, scoring twice and providing five assists.
During his debut season, he generated 0.32 xG per game and was involved in 0.77 goals per match, which places him in the top ten percent of players in the tournament.
According to our projections model, the French champions have a 55.5% chance of progressing to the round of 16.
To achieve this, they likely need to secure at least four points from their remaining league phase fixtures against Manchester City and Stuttgart, followed by a successful play-off tie in February.
Beyond that, their prospects of reaching the final are slim, at just 8.8%. However, this is in stark contrast to bookmakers' odds of 21 for reaching the final in Munich, which implies a probability of only 4.8%.
The presence of Kvaratskhelia in the knock-out ties could give Luis Enrique's squad the much-needed boost, making a bet on PSG at such high odds potentially worthwhile.