Bologna climbed into 4th ahead of struggling Juventus after their 5-0 win over Lazio. Is their form sustainable or has their schedule been favourable?
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The Race for 4th in Serie A is Now Wide Open
The race for the fourth automatic qualification spot for next season’s UEFA Champions League is heating up. In fact, it’s becoming just as fascinating as the battle for this year’s Scudetto.
Up to six teams still believe they have a shot at securing fourth place in Serie A. Just a month or two ago, it looked like a two-way race between Juventus and Lazio, but the likes of Bologna and Roma are closing in on them. Bologna have even moved ahead into fourth, with nine games left to play.
Bologna have averaged 2.38 points per game across the last eight league games played. This points return has only been bettered by Roma (2.75 points per game).
AS Roma are undefeated since 15th December, with Claudio Ranieri’s men winning eight of their last nine Serie A matches.
Roma’s bitter rivals, Lazio, have seen their form drop considerably. They have averaged just 1.50 points per game across their last eight games. Since the festive season, they have landed just four wins from 12 matches.
Even Juventus, who had lost just once in 27 games, have just suffered back-to-back league defeats to Fiorentina and Atalanta. The latter was a damaging 4-0 home loss, which has all but ended Juve’s title chances.
As it stands, just six points separate fourth-placed Bologna and ninth-placed Milan. Any of these six teams could still put a run together to clinch a place in the 2025/26 Champions League.
Why We’d Still Avoid Betting on Bologna to Clinch a Top 4 Finish
Only Inter and Juventus have lost fewer Serie A games than Bologna this season. However, we still don’t think there is value in backing them for a top-four finish.
A big problem is Bologna’s upcoming fixture schedule after the latest international break.
Although their next game is against second-bottom Venezia, they then face a home game with second-placed Napoli. After that, Bologna travel to third-placed Atalanta before hosting league leaders Inter.
Following that challenging trio of games, Bologna travel to a Udinese side that can make life difficult for the top teams. They average 1.53 points per game at home.
They then face another tough set of fixtures as they host Juventus before trips to Milan and Fiorentina. Facing six of the current top nine in the season run-in makes top-four qualification a daunting task for Vincenzo Italiano’s side.
If we had to back a team for a top-four finish right now, Juventus still seem to be in the driving seat. They only face three of the top nine in their remaining fixtures.
Their final two games start with a home clash against Udinese, who may lack motivation as they have little to play for. That’s followed by a trip to second-bottom Venezia, who are highly likely to be relegated by then.
The only thing that could hold Thiago Motta’s Juve back is their growing injury list. The Bianconeri lost Andrea Cambiaso and Lloyd Kelly to fresh injuries in their latest 3-0 loss to Fiorentina.
Elsewhere on the injury front, AS Roma have also been dealt a major blow as Paulo Dybala has been ruled out for their next league games against Lecce, Juventus and Lazio.