Duràn, Duràn: The Premier League’s Super Subs Bettors Should Back

With eight goals as a substitute since February 2023, he leads the league in this category. 

With matches in the English top flight last season averaging nearly to 101 minutes and in-play time increasing by an average of three minutes and 45 seconds, substitutes have more chances to affect the outcome of games.

It’s not surprising that Justin Kluivert's winning goal for Bournemouth against Crystal Palace in April 2024 exceeded the previous record of 132 goals scored by substitutes, which was established in the 2022/2023 season.

The introduction of five substitutions since 2020 has also transformed the strategic landscape regarding betting on goal scorers.

This weekend's fixtures provide a prime context to explore which games might be decided by super-subs.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Tottenham vs West Ham: A Derby Ripe for Tactical Nuance

In the Premier League, second-half performances have become increasingly pivotal, with Arsenal leading by netting nine goals after the break this season. 

Closely following are Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Brighton, each with seven goals scored in the second half. 

Spurs, despite their strong home record, have shown a clear vulnerability in the second half, having conceded six goals. 

This contrasts notably with West Ham’s impressive second-half record on the road, where they've scored four goals without conceding. For the Hammers, Danny Ings presents a potent threat. 

Twenty of Ings’ last 23 appearances for West Ham have been as a substitute, and the former Aston Villa forward has already scored the Hammers’ 95th equaliser at Craven Cottage this season. 

With a conversion rate of 50% (one goal from two shots, both on target), Ings is a prime candidate to capitalise on Tottenham's defensive lapses in the closing stages of the game.

Fulham vs Aston Villa: The Duran’s effect

Aston Villa’s standout performer Jhon Duran, has made a name for himself with his incredible ability to score crucial goals after coming off the bench. His record speaks volumes: five of his six goals this season have been as a substitute, making him an invaluable asset in tight match situations. 

With Fulham having shown a tendency to concede late goals (three after the 75th minute), Villa's tactical setup could be perfectly poised to unleash the Colombian striker when the game opens up. 

Duran, who has a 40% conversion rate, highlights the club's late-game prowess, suggesting an increased likelihood that this game will end with Both Teams to Score and over 2.5 Goals.

Wolves vs Man City: Guardiola’s Rotational Masterpiece

Manchester City are expected to extend their Premier League unbeaten run when they visit Wolverhampton, with Pep Guardiola’s use of substitutes likely to be vital as they prepare for their return to Champions League football.

City tops the league in overall scoring, but has struggled to replicate this success after the break in away matches, scoring just twice. 

Wolverhampton Wanderers, on the other hand, have struggled defensively, conceding the most second-half goals with a total of 12, seven of which came at Molineux. 

Furthermore, Manchester City leads the league with five goals scored after the 75th minute, while Arsenal, Aston Villa, Newcastle, and Tottenham each follow with three late goals.

Jeremy Doku has come off the bench 13 times for City since 2023/2024 and taken six shots in the current campaign, scoring during the last matchday against Fulham after coming on for Jack Grealish.

Liverpool vs Chelsea: late goals likely

The highly anticipated clash of Liverpool and Chelsea is another game where substitute power could play a pivotal role. 

Both clubs have shown competence in second-half performances, with Chelsea maintaining an unbeaten away record post-break and Liverpool boasting squad depth capable of overturning results late in games.

Chelsea has scored six times away from home in second halves, speaking to their ability to recalibrate and adapt as matches evolve. 

Christopher Nkunku could be a smart pick, considering his 25% conversion rate in the Premier League, along with his recent goals in the Conference League, and for France during the international break.

Liverpool possess a wealth of attacking options, with a player like Dawin Nuñez (eight goals for The Reds as a substitute in all competitions), potentially turning the tide late in games.