France vs Croatia Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for France vs Croatia
- France to win and over 2.5 goals @ +110 with BetMGM
- France to Win 1st Half @ +100 with bet365
- Goal Scored Between 11-20 Mins (Yes) @ +375 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM & bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Croatia landed a shock 2-0 first leg victory in their Nations League quarter-final with France. Les Bleus enjoyed all the possession and created more chances than the Croatians but still ended up losing.
Even the return of France’s talisman, Kylian Mbappe, wasn’t enough to inspire a French victory. They fell behind to an unexpected headed goal from Ante Budimir. Meanwhile, Ivan Perisic took advantage of some sloppy French defending to fire in a second before the break.
France haven’t managed to win when conceding first in the Nations League in the last three occasions. Kylian Mbappe registered six shots of his own during the game, and the Croatian goal was fortunate to remain unbreached. However, the hosts held on for a famous victory.
However, the job is far from over. France still have a second chance to reach the semi-final stage. They must win by two goals at least to take the tie into extra time or three goals to win outright.
France’s recent head-to-head record with Croatia isn’t glowing. They haven’t won in their last three competitive meetings, scoring just one goal across the three games.
Probable Lineups for France vs Croatia
France Expected Lineup: Maignan; Kounde, Digne, Konate, Saliba, Guendouzi, Rabiot, Tchouameni, Dembele, Kolo Muani, Mbappe
Croatia Expected Lineup: Livakovic; Stanisic, Gvardiol, Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Modric, Kovacic, Perisic, Kramaric, Baturina, Budimir
Les Bleus to Land Comeback Win at Stade de France
Although France’s recent record against Croatia is not the best, it’s hard to bet against them in this second leg encounter. They have too much firepower to go scoreless again.
Mbappe should have scored at least twice on Thursday, while fellow forward Ousmane Dembele is in the form of his life right now.
With Mbappe, Dembele and Randal Kolo Muani all playing from the outset, this is the most attack-minded team France can field. With two goals to overturn in Paris, we believe France can do it. They registered 1.32 xG in the first leg, which was only fractionally worse than Croatia’s output (1.43 xG).
- France vs Croatia Bet 1: France to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ +110 with BetMGM
France Set to Start Strong from the Off
In France’s Nations League campaign, 58% of their goals have been scored in the first half. Meanwhile, 75% of Croatia’s goals conceded have also arrived in the opening 45.
It’s difficult to see France playing a patient game here. They will want to at least halve the deficit in the early exchanges and put pressure on Croatia.
It is estimated that there is a relatively low chance of the first 45 having the most goals scored. However, given the hosts’ attacking lineup and the need for goals, we believe this is more likely. Additionally, Croatia’s ageing midfield could be a factor. Can the likes of Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic play at the same intensity twice in four days?
- France vs Croatia Bet 2: Half With Most Goals (1st Half) @ +100 with bet365
Backing at Least One Goal Midway Through the First Half
Four of Croatia’s ten goals scored in their Nations League campaign have arrived in the 16th-30th minute window.
Similarly, three of France’s eight goals conceded in the Nations League happened in the same timeframe. Of our three France vs Croatia predictions, this one appears the most supported by data.
We envisage France to apply pressure on the Croatians in the first 15 minutes. The visitors may eventually succumb to an opener in the 16-30-minute period. Given that just 30% and 25% of Croatia’s goals scored and conceded in this campaign happened in the second half, we believe Sunday’s first half will be a thrilling one.
- France vs Croatia Bet 3: Goal Scored Between 16-30 Mins (Yes) @ +375 with bet365