Does being top at Christmas lead to Premier League glory?

A common cliché in English football says if your team's top of the table while you savour your spectacular Christmas turkey, you stand a pretty good chance of lifting the Premier League by the end of the campaign. But as we know, this is far from a guarantee.

In ten of the last 14 seasons, the team No. 1 on December 25 has gone on to enjoy Premier League title success. In fact, since the revamped version of the English top flight was introduced in 1992, it's happened in 16 of the 32 seasons.

Of course, not every side can keep their stranglehold on the league crown after racing to the top at the halfway mark. GOAL dives into the history books to find out what happened to the teams who led the table on Christmas Day. Did they go on to claim glory or capitulate towards the end of the season?

Top of the Tree at Christmas vs. Title Winners since 1992/93

History dictates that the team that sits at the top of the table on Christmas Day usually goes on to win the title, but the optics are not all great if you're Liverpool. Only five times in the last 15 seasons has the top-placed team at Christmas failed to lift the Premier League trophy, and it was Liverpool four times.

Being at the top of the league at Christmas is familiar territory for the Reds, but every time they have been in this position, the Merseysiders have more often than not failed to press home their advantage and win the title at the end of the season.

In 2008/09, the Reds only lost two games all season but still finished behind eventual champions Manchester United. But the most infamous collapse undoubtedly came in 2014, with the Reds losing 2-0 at Anfield to Chelsea, thanks in part to an iconic Steven Gerrard slip, before squandering a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 at Crystal Palace.

Manchester City were once again the pantomime villains' in the 2018/19 and 2020/21 seasons, with Pep Guardiola's winning juggernaut usually coming out on top of Jurgen Klopp's troops in several enthralling neck-to-neck title races over the past six campaigns.

Speaking of Man City, half of the Sky Blues' eight titles have come when they have been chasing at Christmas. Indeed, they are the only team in Premier League history to win the title after being as low as eighth on 25 December.

In the 2020/21 season, City were eight points off the top at Christmas, while they were also the ones chasing this time last season, showcasing their imperious ability to put together an unstoppable run and overturn the deficit, meaning it will still be a tall order for their rivals to dethrone them come the end of the season even though they currently sit fourth, four points off the pace.

Some eventual champions have come back from an even bigger points deficit. Arsenal were 13 points adrift on 25 December 1997 but rallied from behind to win their first Premier League title.

Which are the other teams that 'bottled' Christmas Day advantage?

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Liverpool are not alone in having the honour of coming on the wrong end of title races post-Christmas, with several other teams having failed to hold on to their festive spot at the top of the table until the end of the campaign.

Only last season, Arsenal led the table for 248 days, shattering the record for the longest time spent top without subsequently winning the league in English top-flight history. Mikel Arteta's side had a five-point lead with equal games played on April 8; six weeks later, they had surrendered the crown to Manchester City.

In the inaugural 1992/93 Premiership season, Norwich started like a house on fire, beating just about everyone in the run-up to Christmas. They spent 129 days atop the table and led the pack as late as March 19. However, a losing streak in the second half of the season saw Norwich finish third, with a negative goal difference.

The 1995/96 Newcastle team has become somewhat of a treasured memory. An immensely talented side, dubbed the Entertainers for their flamboyant style of play, led by Kevin Keegan, fell to a devastating 4-3 defeat to Liverpool, and never quite recovered.

Finishing second to Manchester United, Keegan's ‘I would love it’ rant went down among the most memorable moments in the league’s history. Unfortunately for Keegan, they weren’t able to win the title.

Which are the teams that did win the Premier League after being top at Christmas?

Aside from Man City and Liverpool, Leicester City (2015/16) and Chelsea (2014/15) are the two table-topping Christmas day sides who capitalised on their lead and went on to lift the title the following summer in the recent past.

Chelsea would pick up their first title in five years when they lifted the trophy back in 2015, finishing above Man City by eight points under the tutelage of Jose Mourinho.

The 2015/16 campaign was all about Leicester City and their astonishing maiden Premier League title. Claudio Ranieri led his side to the top of the table at Christmas, but no one in their wildest dreams would envision that the Italian tactician would be able to guide the Foxes' to go all the way as they were crowned champions comfortably with two games to spare and finished 10 points above runners-up Arsenal by the end of the season.

During the 2016/17 campaign, Antonio Conte took over a Chelsea side that had just finished 10th under Jose Mourinho and interim manager Guus Hiddink and helped them reach their full potential, revitalising players like Diego Costa and establishing a rock-strong defence.

With Eden Hazard as their maverick, the Blues were so good by the time December came around that it appeared they had few true title rivals, although Spurs' made a late surge to threaten a challenge before fading away.