Just how good are Brighton under Fabian Hurzelar? The Seagulls are level on points with Arsenal and Chelsea and one behind Man City after 12 games. It took a spirited ten-man display from the 59th minute to defeat Bournemouth on the weekend, but they did.
The Bournemouth win at the Vitality Stadium was greeted by chants from the travelling away support echoing around the ground. The contents of the chants fixated on one thing: Brighton heading back to European competition under their new 31-year-old manager.
Premier League Outright Market | bet365 Odds |
|---|---|
Brighton Top Six Finish |
Odds courtesy of Betway Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Heading 1: Brighton’s Scheduling Is An Early Gift
The Premier League Top Six market has Brighton priced at 2.25 to be a part of the European conversation come the end of the season. Brighton don't play another top-six chasing team until December 30th, handing them a straightforward schedule. No games in the Premier League are easy, of course, but there's no denying the upcoming six games are all winnable,
Navigate December as confidently as they have done in the opening stages of the season, and we might see the 2.25 price to finish in the top six fade quickly.
Brighton have lost just 2/11 games this season, falling to defeat against both Liverpool and Chelsea away from home - two venues where many will slip up this season. Fabian Hurzelar's South Coast outfit have scored as many goals as Arsenal (21) and conceded one goal fewer than Manchester City (16).
Fixtures against each of Southampton, Fulham, Leicester, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Brentford take Brighton up to December 27th. On New Year's Eve, they take on Aston Villa before Arsenal and Manchester United pose two early tests in 2025.
Suppose Brighton wins five of their next six and sits level on points with title challengers Arsenal and Manchester City after 18 games. What price will they then be in 2025? This 2.25 Top Six Finish price will only get shorter should they keep picking up points now Joao Pedro is back leading the line with Kaoru Mitoma, Danny Welbeck, Georginio Rutter, and Evan Ferguson all ready and waiting.
Heading 2: A Difficult Start Met With Star Players Returning
The return of Joao Pedro is timely. Danny Welbeck has deputised brilliantly, but the Brazilian is the Seagulls' shining light. After the Bournemouth game, Hurzelar spoke on what he brings to the side, "In possession, he is unbelievable - he makes the difference.'
Joao Pedro will outgrow Brighton eventually. That is no disrespect to the club. It's a part of their business model. The same will likely happen with Carlos Baleba, Kaoru Mitoma, Jan Paul van Hecke, and probably their young, hungry manager, Fabian Hurzelar. But whilst they have that hunger all under one roof, this is a season where they can capitalise.
Assuming Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City make the top six, let's look at Brighton's primary challengers for the other three spots. Chelsea, Tottenham, Brighton, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Man United are the six teams battling it out for the remaining three positions. Interestingly, Chelsea are priced the same as Manchester City to clinch a top-six finish.
Man United are in 12th place, lagging behind Brighton in 5th. However, there are only six points separating the two sides. A more efficient way to get a handle on respective performance is usually the underlying metrics. However, all signs here point towards Brighton performing at a level below a top-six chasing team. The Seagulls hold the 7th-worst Expected Goals Against total with 18.88xGA. At the other end, ten teams have accumulated more than the 16.52xG after 12 games.
This is a new manager overseeing a brand-new team with an influx of fresh ideas and approaches. That doesn't often translate into points and wins overnight. Furthermore, out of all the teams in the top half of the table, Brighton and Arsenal have had the most challenging schedule so far.
Previous Brighton opponents' Points Per Game this season stands at a 1.50 average, whilst Arsenal's comes in at 1.52. For comparison, Manchester City (1.12PPG), Liverpool (1.27PPG), and Tottenham (1.28PPG), who are just behind Brighton in 6th, have all faced teams not quite in form and picking up points. That suggests that Brighton’s underlying data might start to look more appealing by the time we get to 2025.
Now, with a more manageable schedule ahead of them, this might be the time to get behind Fabian Hurzelar's Brighton.