Despite his success with Paris Saint-Germain and the national team, Mbappé has yet to secure the Champions League or the Ballon d'Or, a fact that has been a source of frustration for both the player and his fans.
As Mbappé embarks on this new chapter, a particularly tantalising bet has emerged in the football markets: whether he can score 35 goals or more in La Liga this season.
The odds are set at 2.20, which might seem like a reasonable bet given Mbappé's pedigree.
However, there are significant risks involved in assuming the Real Madrid’s striker can reach this target. To understand the complexities of this bet, it's essential to explore both the optimistic and cautious perspectives surrounding Mbappé's scoring potential in Spain.
- Mbappe’s league scoring record is 33 goals with PSG in 2018/2019; that’s the only time the Frenchman has scored more than 30 league goals.
- Real Madrid netted 87 La Liga goals last year, overperforming their xG total by 18.2.
- In 2023/2024, Jude Bellingham was Real Madrid’s top goalscorer with 19 goals.
Odds courtesy of 10bet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The Case for Kylian: A Goalscoring Phenomenon
Mbappe’s track record at PSG is nothing short of extraordinary. Over six seasons, he amassed 256 goals across all competitions, making him the club's all-time leading scorer. His consistency in front of goal has been remarkable, with Mbappé winning the Ligue 1 Golden Boot for six consecutive seasons between 2019 and 2024.
Mbappé scored Real Madrid’s opener in the Super Cup against Atalanta and his ambition is clear: he aims to score 50 goals in his first season at the club, a feat that would place him in the same category as the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo.
The Portuguese scored 35 goals or more in La Liga on four different occasions during his time at the Santiago Bernabéu, setting a benchmark Mbappé is eager to meet or even surpass.
Mbappé's partnership with Vinícius Júnior is expected to be one of the most lethal attacking combinations in Europe. Together, they have dominated Champions League statistics in recent seasons, with Mbappé leading in goals scored (21) and shots taken (104) since the start of the 2021/22 season.
The duo's ability to create and capitalise on goal-scoring opportunities makes it tempting to believe Mbappé could indeed reach the 35-goal mark in La Liga.
Why 35 Goals Might Be a Stretch
To understand the magnitude of this target, it's crucial to examine the historical context.
Since 1990, La Liga top goalscorer has scored 35 goals or more in only seven occasions: Lionel Messi achieved this feat four times, while Cristiano Ronaldo did so twice.
The only other player to join this exclusive club is Luis Suárez, who scored 40 goals in the 2015/16 season.
Notably, Cristiano only managed to score 26 goals in his debut La Liga season.
Another factor to consider is Real Madrid's recent goal-scoring trends. Last season, the club scored 87 goals in La Liga, averaging 2.29 goals per game. However, this figure was bolstered by an overperformance relative to their expected goals (xG) total, which they exceeded by 18.2 goals.
This suggests the team’s goal-scoring output might regress to the mean, potentially reducing the number of opportunities for Mbappé to score.
Only one Real Madrid player (Benzema) has won the Pichichi award in the last nine seasons and despite Artem Dobvyk (24 goals in 2023/2024 with Girona) departure to Serie A, neither Alexander Sørloth (odds of 17), nor the Real Madrid duo, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Jr., are considered the favourites to become top goalscorer.
In fact Mbappe significantly impacts Bellingham and Vinicius Jr.'s chances of racking up the goals.
With odds of 1.7 for the Frenchman, he is the clear favourite, likely drawing more scoring opportunities away from his teammates.
Bellingham (21), who’s likely to be deployed behind the main striker, and Vinicius (12) face longer odds, as Mbappe's prolific goal-scoring ability could overshadow their chances.