Lazio vs Nice Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Lazio vs Nice
- Over 2.5 total goals with odds of @2.05 on 10bet, equating to a 48.8% implied probability.
- Lazio to win and both teams to score with odds of @3.95 on 10bet, equating to a 25.3% implied probability.
- Valentin Castellanos to score with odds of @2.60 on 10bet, equating to a 38.5% implied probability.
Lazio are predicted to beat Nice 3-1 in the Europa League.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Lazio host Nice on matchday two of the 2024-25 Europa League.
Winners of Dynamo Kyiv last week, Lazio recorded back-to-back wins for the first time this season when they beat Torino in a five-goal thriller at the weekend. They can take a step towards qualifying for the Europa League knockout rounds if they see off Nice on Thursday night.
It’s been a tumultuous start to the campaign for Lazio, but they will be hoping consecutive wins can kick-start their season.
Nice’s season hasn’t been much easier. Aside from an 8-0 hammering of Saint-Etienne, it’s been a frustrating first few weeks. Draws with Real Sociedad and Lens are hardly cause for concern, but it leaves them with just two wins on the board this term.
It’s a big ask for Nice to get a result on the road this Thursday. They did go unbeaten on the road in the Conference League last season, however.
Probable Lineups for Lazio vs Nice
Lazio probable XI:
Provedel; Marusic, Patric, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Guendouzi, Vecino; Tchaouna, Dele-Bashiru, Castellanos; Dia.
Nice probable XI:
Bulka; Ndayishimiye, Bombito, Dante; Clauss, Rosario, Louchet, Bard; Diop, Moukoko, Guessand.
Goals Expected
Over 2.5 has hit in all of Lazio’s matches so far this season. It has cashed in just half of Nice’s Ligue 1 fixtures, but it’s important to note there has been a total of 19 expected goals across their six league matches.
Udinese are the only team to hold Lazio to under two goals. Nice’s underlying metrics don’t indicate a particularly strong defence, so all we’re looking for is a third goal from Lazio or Nice to find the net.
Given that Lazio’s only clean sheet this term was against Dynamo Kyiv, we can feel pretty confident Nice will score. We’d back this even if the price shortened to 1.80.
- Lazio vs Nice Bet 1: Over 2.5 total goals @ 2.05 with 10bet
Lazio Take All Three Points
Wins over Dynamo Kyiv and Torino indicate Lazio are finding some form. Nice have already lost to Auxerre and Marseille on the road this season.
The victory over Dynamo Kyiv at the Volksparkstadion is the only time both teams to score hasn’t paid out in a Lazio match this season. That is very much the exception to the rule, and we expect Nice to pose more of an attacking threat.
Lazio are the superior team on paper, though, and have seven points from their three home league matches this season.
- Lazio vs Nice Bet 2: Lazio to win and both teams to score @ 3.95 with 10bet
Castellanos Scores Fourth of the Campaign
Valentin Castellanos’ 0.72 expected goals per 90 in Serie A is far clear of any other Lazio player. He had four shots against Torino at the weekend and has taken nine more shots than any of his teammates in the league.
He scored in his starts either side of the international break. The biggest threat to this wager is if he’s rotated, but we think he will get the start with the quality of opponent Lazio are facing.
Given his importance to a high-scoring Lazio attack, this is superb value in the anytime scorer market.
- Lazio vs Nice Bet 3: Valentin Castellanos to score anytime @ 2.60 with 10bet