Olivier Giroud, Milan’s top scorer in 2023-24, has left the club. Milan have replaced him with Alvaro Morata, but more attacking additions are needed if they are to mount a charge on multiple fronts.
- Milan overachieved their expected goals by 9.8 last season.
- Top scorer Olivier Giroud has departed to join LAFC.
- Tammy Abraham averages 0.52 expected goals per 90 in Serie A.
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Milan Need Abraham’s Goal Threat
Even after landing Morata, the Rossoneri have been consistently linked with Tammy Abraham. The former Chelsea striker is reportedly keen on the move and is not considering Everton or West Ham as potential destinations. Roma are pursuing Artem Dovbyk, which would surely open the door for a transfer.
Throughout his career, Abraham has averaged 0.52 expected goals per 90 in Serie A, which would have been the second-highest for Milan last term. Giroud was only 0.02 higher. Morata was up at 0.65 last season, but his last two campaigns with Juventus came in at 0.41.
Abraham has a track record of generating and taking goal-scoring opportunities, dating back to his stint with Aston Villa in 2018-19. Milan, who are 7.50 and third favourites to win Serie A, certainly need that additional firepower if they are to topple their local rivals next season.
Of players to play over 1000 league minutes, Rafael Leao had the second-highest expected goals per 90. Yes, Noah Okafor and Luka Jovic have a bigger role to play, but with the rigours of the Champions League and Giroud departing, Milan clearly need more of a goal threat.
Other Betting Options If Milan Don’t Strengthen
We would steer clear of Milan at 7.50 with their current strikeforce. Morata’s record in Italy doesn’t inspire confidence, and we need to see it to believe it with Okafor and Jovic, who combined for 15 Serie A goal involvements last season.
Elsewhere, Napoli are the pick of the Serie A outright markets at 8.00 to win the Scudetto with Antonio Conte in charge. Of the Italian clubs, Inter are superb value at 19.00 to win the Champions League following their dominant 2023-24 Serie A showing. We like their work in the transfer market without doing anything overly splashy.
Milan’s odds become a lot more appealing if an Abraham move happens, though. Morata, Abraham, Jovic, Okafor, Leao, and Christian Pulisic is a diverse, exciting group of attacking options. He might have had an injury disrupted 2023-24, but it’s the presence of Abraham which pushes that group from fun to formidable. This Milan team desperately needs another proven goalscorer.