Aston Villa are on the cusp of completing a £50 million deal for Everton midfielder Amadou Onana. After qualifying for the Champions League in 2023-24, does adding Onana consolidate Villa as top four candidates once again?
| Market | Odds |
| Aston Villa to finish in the top four | 4,00 |
| Aston Villa to finish in the top six | 2,37 |
| Aston Villa to win the Premier League without Manchester City | 26,00 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
- Villa made the second-fewest tackles in the Premier League last season, and the fewest in the middle and attacking thirds
- Onana made 3.1 tackles per 90 in the Premier League in 2023-24
- No Villa player averaged more than 2.3 tackles per 90
Clear Need For Villains In Midfield
After selling Douglas Luiz to Juventus, Villa had a clear need in central midfield. Youri Tielemans, Boubacar Kamara, and Leander Dendoncker were nowhere near enough depth for a team competing on four fronts. Amadou Onana is an immediate upgrade in the heart of Villa’s midfield, bringing a skillset which makes him excellent at breaking up opposing attacks.
Onana ranks in the 92nd percentile in tackles won per 90 and aerial duels won per 90. Still only 22 years old, he’s a regular for Belgium, and was integral in Everton’s fight against relegation last season. Improvement is expected in his ability on the ball – we predict an uptick in his 4.61 progressive passes per 90 now he’s playing on a better, more fluid team.
Kamara and Tielemans averaged a combined 4.6 tackles per 90 last season. Onana was at 3.1 on his own. Neither Kamara nor Tielemans were compensating by racking up interceptions, either.
Some of this is down to Unai Emery’s tactics, but Villa were also second-last in tackles won in 2023-24, and had the fewest tackles made in the middle and attacking thirds. Onana, one of the Premier League’s best ball winners, should help to address this.
Will Villa Record Another Top Four Finish?
Villa had a brilliant 2023-24 season. Emery’s side got some marquee wins, and qualified for the Champions League for the first time in several decades. They overachieved their expected goal difference significantly, though, with a +15 actual mark compared with their expected +3.4. Their expected goals tallies worked out only slightly better than Brentford and ranked seventh in the Premier League.
Given the rigours of continental competition throughout the winter months, it’s a big ask for Villa to record consecutive top-four finishes. Tottenham, Manchester United, and Chelsea should all be more competitive. Newcastle remain ambitious, too.
This Onana signing is a step in the right direction, however. Villa need to improve their depth, and there’s no question Onana belongs on a top-six team after his performances for Everton.
We would definitely consider taking Villa to finish in the top six at 2.37, partly working on the assumption that there will be more signings of this nature to come. Onana, with his potential to develop further, certainly raises this ceiling next term.