Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
- Atletico to win with odds of @2.12 on Betway, meaning a 47.6% implied probability.
- Alexander Sorloth to score with odds of @2.19 on Betway, meaning a 48.8% implied probability.
- Under 2.5 total goals with odds of @2.11 on Betway, meaning a 47.6% implied probability.
We predict Atletico Madrid to win by a scoreline of 2-0.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Villarreal host Atletico Madrid in the opening round of La Liga fixtures on Monday night. A whopping 23 points split the two teams last season, but pre-match betting markets only have Atletico as narrow favourites.
This is an opportunity for Alexander Sorloth against his former team. Atletico splashed the cash on the Scandinavian earlier this summer after he top-scored for Villarreal last term. It’s been a busy transfer window for the Yellow Submarine, with a raft of first-team players departing.
Atletico have been busy over the last few months beyond the Sorloth acquisition. Julian Alvarez could prove to be one of the signings of the summer, while Robin Le Normand is a marquee addition to the back line.
Atleti are aiming to close the gap to the top two teams after a disappointing 2023-24 campaign. The squad has been significantly overhauled over the last couple of years, and this fixture will be a real test of their credentials as the new campaign begins.
Villarreal have some work to do if they are to return to the top six. Their expected goal difference was mid-table last season, and only two teams conceded more goals. Time will tell if they have done enough this summer to be properly competitive and compete for Champions League qualification.
Probable Lineups for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
Villarreal probable XI:
Conde; Foyth, Albiol, Bailly, Alti; Comesana, Parejo, Terrats; Pepe, G Moreno, Akhomach.
Atletico Madrid probable XI:
Oblak; Azpilicueta, Le Normand, Reinildo; Llorente, Vermeeren, Koke, Lemar, Lino; Sorloth, Correa.
Atleti Get The Job Done
The start of a new season means we’ve got no form book to go on. The summer’s transfer business is the main focus when we come into a new campaign like this, and it’s clear Atletico have had the more satisfying transfer window thus far.
Despite finishing outside the top three for the first time since 2012, Atletico were comfortably the third-best team in the league by their expected goal difference. Villarreal had a mediocre campaign with a worse expected goal difference than Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca.
Atleti have had a very strong record in this fixture over the last few seasons, and we find it hard to look past an away win here. The favourites won four of their final five away fixtures in 2023-24, and should be able to extend that good run in this one.
- Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Bet 1: Atletico to win @2.12 with Betway
Sorloth Scores Against Former Team
Only Artem Dovbyk scored more goals than Alexander Sorloth last season. Yes, Sorloth’s underlying metrics were nothing to get too excited about (18th in expected goals), but he fired off 2.3 shots per match, which was only bettered by seven players in the league.
His run at the end of last season was spectacular. The Norwegian scored in six of his last 10 appearances for club and country, including four goals against Real Madrid and a brace in a win over Sevilla.
Sorloth was unstoppable earlier this year and has been able to rest over the summer. He’s going to lead the line for Atletico on Monday night, with a chance to dominate his former team after a poor defensive season for the Yellow Submarine. With the quality around him, we’re backing Sorloth to be even more productive this season than he was in 2023-24.
- Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Bet 2: Alexander Sorloth to score anytime @2.19 with Betway
Low-Scoring Game
We expect a vintage away performance from Atletico. Villarreal are lacking a cutting edge in the final third after losing Sorloth, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the hosts get shut out on Monday night.
Atletico will be typically well-organised. Their defence has been bolstered by the signing of Robin Le Normand, plus Diego Simeone will want to pack the midfield in an effort to stifle Villarreal.
Given Atleti’s style of play and Simeone’s knack for grinding out results away from home, we are surprised to see a price of 2.10 on under 2.5 goals. While both teams were in plenty of high-scoring matches last season, this has the makings of a cagey early-season match.
- Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Bet 3: Under 2.5 total goals @2.11 with Betway