Manchester City cannot quite be said to have squandered a 14-point lead at the top of the Premier League table.
First of all, despite drawing 0-0 with Crystal Palace on Monday night, the title is still in their hands.
More significantly, those 14 points were always caveated by Liverpool holding two games in hand and Pep Guardiola has repeatedly said he never thought the title race was over.
Nevertheless, the shift is dramatic.
Momentum has firmly swung in Liverpool’s favour and it is fair to say that while Man City remain one of the best clubs in Europe, they are not at the level they once were under Guardiola.
And what is perhaps most intriguing about this title race is that Man City’s weaknesses represent Guardiola’s movement towards an exaggerated version of himself.
A general slowdown from Centurion era
Step back far enough and Man City have been much slower for quite some time, failing to reach the heights of those consecutive titles, when they won with 100 and 98 points.
In November 2020, when City sat eighth in the league with 20 points from 12 games, many people wondered if this ageing team was at its end. Guardiola’s side had won just 101 points from the previous 50 in the Premier League, after all.
They have bounced back very strongly from that sequence – winning the last title and leading this year – at an average of 2.47 points per game since that difficult November. But the points surge does not tell the whole story.
There have been many games this season when the eye test has pointed to more difficulty than results suggest.
Some sluggishness in possession and vulnerability on the counterattack through midfield has mimicked the issues in 2019-20 and 2020-21.
Arguably, City’s one-goal wins against Arsenal, Aston Villa, West Ham, Wolves, and Everton in the last few months were all fortunate – games that could easily have ended in draws, changing the story.
Move towards Grealish-types sees sharpness diminish
In each of the four games above, as well as home and away games against Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton, Man City have appeared to be playing too often in front of a stubborn defensive shell – rather than making incisive, vertical, or unpredictable movements ahead of it.
This can be attributed to Guardiola doubling down on Guardiola-type playmakers, gradually swapping out the harsher skill sets of players he inherited for the kind of all-rounders that slot neatly into his slow, patient possession rhythms.
Leroy Sane used to be a vital component, his acceleration and runs in behind providing the likes of Kevin De Bruyne with the chance for a killer ball.
Similarly, Raheem Sterling used to pop up more erratically, whereas these days – with playing time limited in favour of Jack Grealish, who prefers to slow things down and work between the lines – his surges only tend to re-emerge in an England shirt.
The upshot of this is that it becomes a little easier for tactically-astute opponents to hold City at arm’s length, shimmying across as Guardiola’s players look to play largely in front of the defence.
It should come as no surprise that, according to Opta, Man City are bottom of the table for 'direct speed' of their attacks and top for number of 10+ pass sequences in open play – with 48 per cent more than the second-ranked team Liverpool.
There is nothing wrong with this in theory. Guardiola has always instructed his players to recycle possession until they are in the right shape to attack with perfect balance.
However, with Premier League teams getting smarter and City losing that maverick quality from out wide, in more and more games they are prevented from creating enough chances.
Note how Tottenham and Southampton worked hard to shut down the half-spaces, knowing this is the only area Man City are truly dangerous. Joao Cancelo’s tendency to drift infield also helps the opponent’s cause.
Lack of a striker exacerbates issues
A slowdown has also happened up front, where Guardiola now favours a false nine coming short, cramming yet more bodies into the spaces between the lines where Man City need a forward with the instinctive movement to help fashion chances.
Most discussions about whether Man City need a striker tend to focus on their goalscoring output. The theory goes that their high volume of goals – 68 in 29 so far this season – shows they can simply share the burden around.
However, aside from the fact they are often recorded in a lopsided fashion – thrashings counter-weighted by games like those against Palace or Southampton – this misses the true value of a No.9.
As with Sane’s runs, City need a player to make sharp movements inside the penalty area that help De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, and Riyad Mahrez pick out a pass; they cannot be creative without somebody at the other end to facilitate the creativity.
Growing importance of transitions a concern
Over the last couple of years, the tactical trend in the Premier League has moved decisively towards maximising transitions, both attacking and defensive, using the German school of thought to make targeted pressing and quick counterattacks something diligently coached (and with a high degree of positional specificity) at most clubs.
That has shifted things somewhat for Man City, most importantly in their defensive model.
Since Rodri replaced Fernandinho at the base of midfield, Guardiola’s side have been more vulnerable here, as teams look to exploit the spaces that open on either side of the Spanish midfielder.
Tottenham were the best example, via Harry Kane, but Southampton’s tucked-in wingers did something similar while Aston Villa’s dual tens also found joy in a competitive 2-1 defeat in December.
It is an issue made worse by the fact Kyle Walker is taking on a slightly more advanced role this season to counter-balance Cancelo coming infield.
The right-back’s pace is essential in covering behind, and yet he operates as part of a back three with less frequency now, getting forward to support Mahrez instead.
We should not lose sight of the fact these are all minor flaws. Man City are still a magnificent team and still in the driving seat to win their fourth Premier League title in five years.
However, with Liverpool catching up, and arguably stronger than ever under Jurgen Klopp, Man City may be punished if they are anything less than perfect.
Right now, there are enough weaknesses in Man City’s system – enough signs that Guardiola has become a bit too 'Guardiola-y' – to suggest Liverpool will be triumphant.